塔里木盆地北缘人口与经济重心演变及其关联分析

 以塔里木盆地北缘为研究靶区，利用区域重心概念及其模型，分析了过去45 a（1965-2009年）塔里木盆地北缘人口、GDP、第一产业、第二产和耕地重心演变过程，并借助相关性分析探讨了人口与GDP、第一产业、第二产业及耕地重心演变的关联性。结果表明：（1）在过去的45 a，塔里木盆地北缘人口重心、经济重心均呈现出由西向东方向迁移的趋势。GDP、第一产业、第二产业发展对人口分布起到了决定性的导向作用。而人口分布差异引起了耕地面积的变化。（2）人口与GDP、第一产业、第二产业经向迁移相关性较强，纬向上相关性不显著。（3）过去的45 a，GDP、第二产业与人口分布的不均衡性加剧，第一产业重心相对人口重心偏移距离变化较为复杂，但二者仍存在较大的不均衡性；耕地面积与人口分布的不均衡性日益变小。表明该区域的经济发展与人口分布整体协调性较差。研究成果可为研究区社会经济发展规划提供科学依据。

Evolvement of population and economy gravity center and its correlation in north periphery of Tarim Basin

Regional difference in economically underdeveloped areas is the hotspot of domestic and foreign scholars.Taking the conception and model of the regional gravity center and adopting the data collected from each city or county at north periphery of the Tarim Basin in the past 45 years(1965-2009),this paper figures out the dynamic evolvement of the population,GDP,first industry,second industry and arable land area gravity center,and analyzes the correlation of evolvement of the population with other economy gravity center at the same time.The results show as follows:(1) Population and economy gravity center of north foreland of the Tarim basin all have shown the trends of migration from the west to the east in 1965-2009,which indicates that the economic development rapidly increased in the east.The developments of GDP,first industry,second industry are the decisive role in guiding population distribution,while the change of population distribution causes the change of arable land area at the same time.(2) The migration of the population has a strong correlation with GDP,first industry,second industry,which passed the significance level of 0.01 in longitude direction with a slight correlation in latitude direction.(3) The imbalance of population distribution with GDP,second industry was aggravated in recent 45 years.The change in first industry gravity center was more complex than that of population,and still exists a large imbalance between them.On the contrary,the imbalance of arable land area and population turns to smaller.The results show that there has poor coordination of economic development and population distribution.