西北干旱区水资源问题研究思考

 气候变化与水资源问题是各国政府部门、学术界和社会公众普遍关注的焦点，也是西北干旱区实现跨越式发展的重要瓶颈之一。在分析前人研究成果基础之上，指出制约西北干旱区社会经济发展和生态安全的关键因素和气候变化对西北干旱区水资源的影响；进而分析西北干旱区气候变化与水资源研究中的热点和难点问题；最后基于西北干旱区水资源研究的重要性和迫切性提出目前亟待解决的研究任务与核心内容，主要包括3个方面：(1)气候变化对西北干旱区水资源形成、转化及未来趋势的影响；(2)气候变化对西北干旱区水循环过程的影响；(3)气候变化对西北干旱区水资源安全的影响。

Ponder on the issues of water resources in the arid region of northwest China

Climate change and water resources have been drawn wide attention by the government,academic field and the public.Meanwhile,those issues have a significant effect on the rapid development of economy in arid region of northwest China to some degree.The arid region of northwest China is featured by wide area,accounting for about 1/4 of the total area of the country,and plays an vital role in economic development as China’s energy base.However,water resources system is very fragile and the climate change in arid region is sensitive to the global climate.Therefore,it is necessary to enhance the water resources system in arid region of northwest to address climate change and allocate limited water resources rationally.Based on the previous research results,this paper analyzes the influence factors of social and economic development and ecological security and the impacts of climate change on water resources in arid region of northwest.Moreover,the hot and difficult issues of climate change and water resources are explored,including water vapor source and climate changes,the change trends of glacial ablation and glacier water resources,water cycle process and simulation,and the vulnerability of water systems and water safety threshold,water resources allocation of "Water-eco-social economy".Finally,the author probes into the impacts of the climate change on the formation and transformation of water resources and the future trends and the effects of climate change on water cycle process and water resource security in arid region of northwest.