耕地生态安全视域下棉花生产布局优化问题研究——以新疆为例

利用2000-2015年农业生产统计数据，运用空间自相关、生产贡献度和PSR模型，分析新疆棉花生产格局变化及增产贡献因素，根据耕地生态安全评价结果测算各县市棉花种植调减面积，结论表明：2000年以来，棉花生产空间格局发生显著变化，形成天山南北坡两个主产区，“南增北减”趋势增强，单产高值区由点及面向天山南北两侧扩张，形成多个集中连片高产中心；棉花生产存在空间集聚效应，表现出持续的稳定性，高值聚集区集中分布于南疆区域；棉花增产主要归因于播种面积的持续扩大；耕地生态安全为临界安全或较不安全状态并呈集中连片分布；新疆棉花种植调减重点集中于南疆区域。在种植结构调整中，综合考虑水资源和土地管理制度约束、农业灌溉用水效率和替代作物选择等问题，科学有序调减棉花种植面积。

Optimization of the distribution of cotton production in Xinjiang under the view of cultivated land ecological security

Besides grain, cotton is the most important agricultural products and strategic supplies,with the longest industrial chain and the highest industrial relevancy in China.The cultivated land,as the most valuable farming resources,plays a crucial part in cotton production.Xinjiang is the largest cotton-producing area in China,which owns a particular climate condition and geographical advantages,such as temperature and light.However,with the unordered expansion of cotton acreage,the problems of scarcity of cultivated land and deterioration of ecological environment have become more and more prominent in recent years.This paper analyzed the spatial-temporal pattern,contribution factors,evaluation of cultivated land ecological security about the cotton production in Xinjiang Province,by using agricultural production statistic data from 2000 to 2015.The methods of the spatial auto-correlation,production contribution and PSR model were implemented in this study and finally the theoretically reducing cotton sown area at county level was generated.The results indicated that the spatial pattern of cotton production has been significantly changed since 2000,the main cotton-production areas had been formed in northern and southern slopes of Tianshan,the trend of "increase in south and decrease in north" was significant,the high value zone of per unit yield was expanded to both sides of Tianshan,which formed the concentrated high-value center; the cotton production displayed certain spatial clustering effect; the high value clusters with continuous stability were mainly distributed in south Xinjiang; the factor of total sown areas,rather than the per unit yield and structural adjustment,had significant impact on cotton production contribution rate from 2000 to 2015.The evaluation result of cultivated land ecological security was less than 0.6,which meant a critical safety or less safety state.The proportion of type IV (the less safety type) and type V (unsafety type) was 84.21%,and the regions of these two types were concentrated distribution.The total theoretic reducing cotton sown area in Xinjiang was 101.176×10⁴ hm²,and the regions of reducing sown area were mainly distributed in south Xinjiang,which accounted for more than 60% of the total area.Based on the analysis,the institutional restraint of water resources and land management,the efficiency of agricultural irrigation water and alternative crops plantation should be taken fully into account in order to improve cultivated land ecological security.