基于GIS的新疆棉花生产发展时空变异分析

在新疆棉花生产统计数据库建立的基础上 ,利用地理信息系统工具软件ArcView制作新疆历年棉花播种面积、单产和总产分布图 ,并以 1 980、1 985、1 990和 1 995年为例对新疆棉花生产的时间和空间分布进行分析 ,同时还分析了 1 997年棉花播种面积占耕地面积和总作物播种面积的比率分布。进入 90年代后新疆棉花生产发展迅速 ,播种面积、单产和总产都有大幅度增加 ,1 995年总产达到 30× 1 0 5t以上的县有莎车、阿克苏、沙雅、阿瓦提、麦盖提、巴楚 6县 ,主产区主要分布在南疆的库尔勒 -阿克苏 -莎车和北疆的昌吉 -博乐沿线各县 ,1 997年已有 1 4个县棉田面积占耕地面积的比率大于 5 0 %。新疆棉花生产已达到一定的规模 ,宜在稳定中求发展 ,注意防止规划和管理不善可能造成的土地退化 ,以保障农业生产持续发展。

ANALYSIS ON THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL CHANGE OF COTTON PRODUCTION DEVELOPMENT IN XINJIANG BASED ON GIS

Based on the database of the cotton production statistics in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomus Region, the GIS tool software Arcview 2.0 is used to map the sown area, per unit area yield and total yield of cotton of each couty in Xinjiang. The temporal and spatial change of cotton production in Xinjiang is analyzed by taking the distributions of cotton production in 1980, 1985, 1990 and 1995 as the cases. The distribution of the proportions of cotton growing area to the total crop growing area and the total cultivated land area is also analyzed. The results show that the cotton production in Xinjiang has been rapidly deveolped since 1990, and the cotton growing area, per unit area yield and total yield have been greatly increased correspondingly. The total yield of cotton in 1995 was more than 30 000 t in 6 counties including Shache, Aksu, Shaya, Awat, Markit and Bachu. The cotton growing area in Shache, a county producing the most quantity of cotton in Xinjiang, was enlarged from less than 10 000 hm 2 in 1980 to 43 000 hm 2 in 1995. The proportion of cotton growing area occupied more than 50% of the total cultivated land area in 14 counties in 1997. All these show that the cotton production in Xinjiang has been reached a certain scale. Cotton, however, can not be continuously cropped during a long period of time, such a high cotton growing proportion will centainly influence the normal crop rotation and reduce the per unit area yield. Therefore, it is suggested to enhance the agricultural planning and management, control the high cotlon growing proportion, popularize water saving irrigation, and take some other measures so as to guard against land degradation, desertification, and secondary salinization or alkalinization. Thus, a sustainable development of agricultural production can be achieved.