中国城镇化影响能源消耗的效应分解及机制探析

依据2000~2012年的省级面板数据,以空间杜宾模型为基础对全国及东部、中部、西部三大地区城镇化影响能耗强度的实际效应进行分析,利用求偏微分法将影响效应分解为直接效应与间接效应,解析城镇化影响能源消耗的内在机制。分析发现,当前城镇化对能耗强度具有正向促进作用,不同地区的城镇化进程对能耗强度的影响存在显著差异;全国范围内城镇化影响能源强度的总效应中间接效应显著为正,直接效应不明显,而东部、中部及西部三大地区呈现出不同的模式;中国城镇化对能源消耗的影响是规模效应、技术效应、结构效应、阶段性效应及空间效应综合作用的结果。

Effects Decomposition and Theoretical Mechanism of Urbanization Influencing Energy Consumption in China

In order to explore effects of urbanization on energy consumption in China, the Spatial Dubin Model is used to analyze the influence of urbanization on energy intensity according to panel data in 2000-2012. After the spatial spillover effect is estimated, the total effects are decomposed to direct effects and indirect effects by partial differentiation. Results show that urbanization is an importance factor on the increase of energy intensity and the influence indicate obvious difference among three regions. Indirect effects of urbanization influencing energy intensity are significantly positive for all provinces. But direct effects are not obvious and present different patterns among three regions. Then theoretical mechanism of urbanization influencing energy consumption is analyzed. The influence of urbanization on energy consumption is the combined action of scale effects, technology effects, structure effects, stage effects and spatial effects. The direct effects of urbanization affecting energy consumption are the result of scale effects, technological effects, structural effects and stage effects, including direct and indirect paths. The indirect effects of urbanization affecting energy consumption are mainly derived from spillover effects between the regions. The results of this article show that urbanization plays an important role in the growth of energy consumption. Nowadays, Chinese government is accelerating the pace of urbanization, which may need more energy demand. Thus, studying the relationship between urbanization and energy consumption is very important to draw up urbanization planning and energy policy. Some recommendations are put forward to promote economic transformation and upgrading, accelerate the construction of ecological civilization. The following research will pay more attention to the nonlinear effects of urbanization on energy intensity and the effects of different types of city on energy consumption, which can provide constructing suggestions for government policy.