中国流动人口的省际迁移模式、集疏格局与市民化路径

系统回顾了中国流动人口的省际变动与集疏格局,包括总体特征与演化趋势,基于迁出地和迁入地属性差异的省际流动人口模式以及基于城市规模的流动人口分布特征,采用趋势分析和马尔科夫链方法预测了中国省际流动人口的空间迁移趋势,由此提出了中国流动人口的市民化路径与建议如下：① 人口的跨区域流动重塑着中国的人口空间格局,东部地区应审慎而稳妥地推进市民化;②积极稳妥地推进中西部地区的城镇化进程,重点推进省内流动人口的就近市民化;③ 不同地区要制定不同的政策,因地制宜地推进市民化进程。

Interprovincial Migration Model,Spatial pattern and Citizenization Path of Floating Population in China

Since the reform and open policy, the development of productivity and the institutional change of population policy have a deep influence on the rural labor force which can migrate to the cities when there are no many things can do in the countryside. With the implementation of the new urbanization strategy, it has become a general trend to promote the urbanization and citizenization of floating population. Therefore, it is urgent to discuss the optimal path and promotion idea of citizenization of floating population in China accurately based on the comprehensive review of spatial pattern and difference of floating population in China. In this study, a systematic review on organization structure change and interprovincial population migration have been carried out, including the following aspects: 1) the characteristics and evolution trend of floating population; 2) emigration and immigration model based on provincial differences of the attributes and features; 3) floating population distribution characteristics of floating population based on the city scale; and 4) spatial migration trend has been predicted. Based on these analyze, citizenization path and suggestions have been proposed which can provide references to guide the of population flow according to its classification orderly and form the reasonable layout the floating population in China.