中国区域全要素生产率的空间溢出关联效应研究

运用空间计量模型对1990~2011年中国全要素生产率进行研究,发现：此间中国省域全要素生产率在大部分年份呈现了空间自相关性,表明这22 a间中国省域全要素生产率并不是完全的随机状态,受其它区域的影响。进一步运用空间计量经济模型从空间维度探究了区域全要素生产率的影响因素,研究表明：经济的集聚水平越高,全要素生产率会得到显著改善;人力资本对经济增长与效率的提升有着显著地积极作用,并表现一定程度的溢出;政府干预和产业结构对全要素生产率的影响为负,说明政府部门要减少对经济的干预;同时表明了中国的产业结构可能存在不合理的地方;信息化水平、基础设施水平对全要素生产率的影响为正,但基础设施水平在统计学意义上并不显著;民营化所占比重的提升对全要素生产率的改进是显著的,因为私有化致使企业的权力下放有助于提高技术效率;经济开放水平显著提升了中国的区域全要素生产率;中国部分省份土地投入规模过大而出现规模不经济的问题。从全要素生产率在各个地区间溢出的证据出发,各个地方政府在统筹区域经济发展的过程中不仅需要考虑本地区经济发展的实际,需要打破目前行政区经济的界限,实现跨区域的协调与合作,实现共赢,最终实现所有地区全要素生产率的提高。

The Spatial Spillover Effects of Regional Total Factor Productivity in China

The paper, using spatial econometric model to study the provinces TFP in China from 1990 to 2011, found, that from the aspects of global and local spatial autocorrelation, China’s provincial TFP represents spatial autocorrelation in most years, and that the provincial TFP is not completely in a random state but affected by other regions in the last 22 years. Using a spatial econometric model, the article further discusses factors influencing the regional TFP from space dimension. From the research, we draw the following conclusions: the higher the economic agglomeration level is, the more significant improvement TFP will achieve. Human capital not only plays a remarkably positive role in the increase of economy and efficiency, but also exhibits a certain degree of overflow. Moreover, human capital can promote domestic technological innovation, which contributes to productivity growth. Governmental intervention and industrial structure has a negative impact on TFP, indicating the government should reduce intervention in economic activities; It also means that something unreasonable may exist in China’s industrial structure. Therefore, the government needs to continue to transfer economic growth mode, adjust the industrial structure, and develop modern services. The effects posed by the informational level and infrastructure level on TFP are positive. And increasing information level can reduce the cost of enterprise information, promote exchanges and cooperation between enterprises, and thus improve the efficiency of the economy. It should be noted that the effects of infrastructure level on TFP is not statistically significant, which may be related to the selected indicator, for only one indictor can not reflect the condition of the infrastructure completely and accurately. The rise in the proportion of privatization has a number of significant improvements over TFP. Privatization allows decentralization of power in enterprises which helps improve technical efficiency. The level of open economy has largely increased China's regional TFP. Because economic exchanges can introduce some advanced foreign management experience, which will be conductive to improving inter-regional competition and efficiency. The study also found that the investment scale of land in some provinces of China is too large, which causes diseconomy of scale. Altogether, the research finds the evidence that TFP has spillover effect in different regions. Therefore, during the development of regional economy, local governments should not only consider actual conditions of development of local economy, but also break the boundaries of administrative region economy, which will help achieve cross-regional coordination and cooperation, create a win-win situation, and ultimately improve TFP in all regions.