基于OWA-GIS的巢湖流域洪涝灾害风险评价

随着全球气候变化和城市化进程加快,洪涝灾害的灾情日益严重。在流域风险识别的基础上,从致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体和防灾减灾能力4个方面选取评价指标,建立评价指标体系。运用层次分析法确定指标的准则权重,基于有序加权平均法（OWA）计算指标的次序权重;构建OWA-GIS洪涝灾害风险评价模型,对巢湖流域洪涝灾害风险进行评价。研究表明：巢湖流域的东南部洪涝灾害风险较大,特别是庐江、无为、居巢区、和县等地。低风险区主要分布在巢湖流域的西南部、西北部和北部,舒城、肥西、肥东县风险低。随着决策系数的增大,决策者的态度由乐观到悲观,得到的风险值也越来越大。基于OWA-GIS的洪涝灾害风险评价是一种情景分析,评价不同决策态度下的风险状况,可拟定更多的复合情景,预测未来某种自然及经济条件下和不同决策态度下的风险,为区域制定规划和灾害风险管理提供科学依据。

Flood Risk Assessment in Chaohu Basin Based on OWA-GIS

As the global climate change and accelerating the process of urbanization, flood disaster becomes increasingly serious. Based on risk identification, evaluation index is selected from hazard factors, disaster environment, hazard bearing body and disaster prevention and mitigation. Evaluation index system is established. Using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to determine the criteria weights, Based on ordered weighted average (OWA) to calculate the order weights. Build OWA-GIS flood risk assessment model to evaluate flood risk in Chaohu Basin. The results show that the high risk is in southeast of Chaohu Basin, especially Lujiang, Wuwei, Juchao district and He county. Low risk areas are mainly distributed in the southwest, northwest and north of Chaohu basin, especially in Shucheng, Feixi and Feidong county. With the increase of the decision coefficient, the decision maker's attitude from optimism to pessimism, risk is also growing. The flood risk assessment based on OWA-GIS is a scenario analysis, evaluating risk status under different decision attitudes. More complex scenarios can be developed to predict the risk under certain natural and economic conditions and different decision attitudes in the future. The study provided scientific basis for planning and disaster risk management.