中国区域工业全要素生产率的空间计量经济分析

全要素生产率(TFP)是一个国家或地区经济增长质量和技术进步、管理效率提高的重要标志,正确、科学测算TFP对区域经济增长和技术进步及政策研究非常重要。运用空间统计和空间计量经济学的空间自相关Moran指数、空间滞后模型和空间误差模型方法,基于2003年中国大陆31个省、直辖市和自治区的工业企业统计数据,对中国大陆省级区域工业全要素生产率进行了空间计量经济测算分析。结果发现,空间统计与空间计量经济学模型在测算我国省域工业全要素生产率中具有较好效果,利用这种方法测算的2003年中国大陆31个区域全要素生产率的实证结果比较符合工业生产率发展实际;在影响我国省域工业生产率的因素中,工业资本投入是造成工业经济增长率在东中西部地区之间和各个省域之间存在巨大差异的主要原因;劳动生产率水平偏低是制约我国省域工业生产率提高的主要瓶颈因素;2003年我国省域工业生产率增长是由资本和技术共同推动的。

A Spatial Econometric Analysis of Industrial Total Factor Productivity in China's Provincial Regions

Total Factor Productivity(TFP) is an important symbol of national economic growth,regional economic growth and technological progress.It is very much important to calculate TFP properly and scientifically for regional economic and technological progress and policy-making.Spatial Moran index of autocorrelation,Spatial Lag Model(SLM)and Spatial Error Model(SEM)are used to analyze the industrial TFP of China's 31 provincial regions based on the industrial enterprises statistical data of year 2003.The econometric estimation results show:(1) The estimation results of spatial econometric models are better than that of OLS model,and the spatial statistic and spatial econometric models have good effects on testing and calculating 31 provincial regions' industrial TFP in China.(2) The investment of industrial capital is one of the main factors which causing the great gap among coastal,central,western areas and provinces in the influencing factors of China's provincial industrial factor productivity.(3) Lower labor productivity is the bottleneck and conditional factor promoting China's 31 provincial regions' industrial TFP.(4) The capital together with technology is the pushing factors in China's provincial industrial TFP growth in 2003.