地下水降深的未确知风险分析

地下水资源系统具有未确知性特征。在定义水文地质未确知参数的基础上,运用未确知数学理论建立了地下水位下降量预测的未确知数学模型。根据该模型不仅可以得到地下水位下降量的可能取值区间,也能够得到相应区间的主观可信度分布。通过将地下水位下降量超过某一给定限值定义为未确知事件,又建立了度量这一事件发生可能性的未确知可靠性计算模型。实例研究表明,所建模型对地下水降深风险的可靠性分析具有很好的适用性,研究成果有效地弥补了以往确定性模型的不足。

Unascertained Risk Analysis of Groundwater Level Drop

As one of the important environmental elements, With the development of social economics, the requirement of the northern China. Because of drop of groundwater level groundwater is a kind of valuable natural resources. for groundwater is more larger than ever in the cities arised from the excessive exploitation, the groundwater quality is faced to be polluted. Therefore, how to determine the drop value of groundwater level scientifically is of importance for the protection of groundwater quality. In practice, the drop value is often calculated using a certain model, which neglects the uncertain characteristics of hydrogeological parameters. In fact, as many other things, the groundwater resources system is also a system with the characteristic of unascertainty. On the basis of defining unascertained parameters of hydrogeology, an unascertained model for forecasting drop value of groundwater level is established in the paper. According to the model, not only the probable drop value interval of groundwater level but also its corresponding distribution of faith degree can be obtained. The study result shows that these models proposed above are suitable for risk assessment of groundwater level drop, and the research achievements also overcome the defects of traditional evaluation method effectively. In order to reflect the probability of drop value of groundwater level exceeding a certain standard, an unascertained event is defined. On the basis, a model for calculating the faith degree what the unascertained event happens is provided.