中国经济发展方式转变综合评价及时空演化特征研究

基于经济高质量发展的核心理念,构建包含经济增长的动能转换、结构优化、绿色发展、稳定开放、人口发展的五维经济发展方式转变评价指标体系。运用“纵横向拉开档次法”对中国及各省域1987~2017年的经济发展方式转变水平进行综合评价,利用ESDA法对其时空特征进行探索,研究表明：① 中国经济发展方式转变水平整体呈逐年上升趋势,特别是2012年后很多省域增速明显,但地区间发展差距较大。② 反映经济发展方式转变的5个维度中,人口发展较好;经济结构优化稳步推进;绿色发展呈现先恶化后改善的趋势,但正成为主导转变的核心动力之一;经济稳定开放能力平稳上升;经济增长动能转换较差,但在呈波动中略上升。③ 空间分异明显,中国经济发展方式转变水平总体呈现出以东部地区为核心、逐步向内陆腹地区域梯度递减的趋势。④ 呈现出较明显的全局空间正相关性,局部空间上主要形成高高和低低集聚类型,存在较明显的交互影响关系。据此提出几点促进新时代中国经济发展方式转变的建议。

Characteristics of Comprehensive Evaluation of Time and Space in the Transformation of China's Economic Development Mode

The 19th National Congress pointed out that "China's economy has shifted from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage", indicating that the transformation of the economic development mode is the only way for China's economy to shift from high-speed growth to high-quality development, and must shift from scale to quality. Based on the core concept of high-quality economic development, this article constructs a five-dimensional economic development mode transformation evaluation index system including economic growth kinetic energy conversion, structural optimization, green development, stable opening and population development. Firstly, the article analyzes the transformation level of economic development mode in China and various provinces from 1987 to 2017 by using the "transverse and horizontal extension method", and then explores its temporal and spatial characteristics by ESDA method. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) China's economic development mode changes overall level. It is on an upward trend year by year, especially after the growth of many provinces in 2012, but the development gap between regions is large. 2) In the five dimensions reflecting the transformation of economic development mode, the population development is better; The economic structure optimization is steadily advancing; the green development shows a trend of deterioration and improvement; the economic stability and opening up ability is steadily rising; the economic growth kinetic energy conversion is poor, but The fluctuations slightly increased. 3) The spatial differentiation is obvious, and the level of China's economic development mode has generally shown a trend of decreasing the gradient in the inland hinterland with the eastern region as the core. 4) A more obvious global spatial positive correlation is presented, and the local spatial mainly forms high and low agglomeration types, and there is a relatively obvious interaction relationship. The policy enlightenment is: 1) Establish the "five developments" concept, reduce environmental pollution through structural upgrading, and accelerate the formation of new development kinetics with science and technology innovation as the core. We will work hard to implement the people-centered development thinking and continuously improve the level of social security and welfare. 2) Play the leading role of the eastern region, increase the investment of funds, technology and talents needed for the western region, and gradually narrow the difference in the economic development mode between the eastern and western regions. 3) It is necessary to fully consider the dynamic evolution of time and space in the transformation of different provincial economic development modes. Based on this, several suggestions are proposed to promote the transformation of China's economic development mode in the new era.