| 新疆塔里木河三源流径流量变化趋势分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 凌红波,徐海量,张青青,史薇.新疆塔里木河三源流径流量变化趋势分析[J].地理科学,2011(6):728-733. |
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| 作者姓名： | 凌红波 徐海量 张青青 史薇 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所;中国科学院研究生院; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(No.2009CB421308); 水利部公益性行业科研专项(No.201101049)共同资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用非参数检验、R/S分析和小波分析等方法对塔里木河三源流的年径流序列进行了分析.结果表明:阿克苏河与叶儿羌河的突变点在1993年,而和田河在1978年;阿克苏河径流呈显著增加趋势而叶儿羌河增加不显著,结合其Hurst指数可知,在未来阿克苏河仍将保持增加走势而叶尔羌河将转变为减少;和田河径流呈轻微的减少趋势,其Hurs...
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| 关 键 词： | 径流趋势 突变 非参数检验 源流 |
The Annual Runoff Variation Trends in the Three Headstreams of Tarim River |
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| LING Hong-bo,XU Hai-liang,ZHANG Qing-qing,SHI Wei.The Annual Runoff Variation Trends in the Three Headstreams of Tarim River[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2011(6):728-733. |
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| Authors: | LING Hong-bo XU Hai-liang ZHANG Qing-qing SHI Wei |
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| Institution: | LING Hong-bo1,2,XU Hai-liang1,ZHANG Qing-qing1,SHI Wei1,2(1.Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830011,China,2.Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the observed annual runoff data of 5 hydrological stations in Tarim River headstreams areas from 1957 to 2008,the paper studied the annual trend,abrupt change,periodicity and the coming period trends by use of the nonparametric test,R/S analysis and wavelet analysis and so on.The results showed that:(1) Both Aksu river and Yarkand river of which the jump points happened at 1993 hold significant step change,but Hetian river expressed a slightly decreasing step trend and is not significant;(2)Aksu ri... |
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| Keywords: | runoff trends abrupt change nonparametric test headstreams |
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