城市土地利用结构影响因素的通径分析——以重庆市为例

精确刻画城市用地结构与影响因素间的直接和间接效应对城市土地利用宏观调控和用地结构优化具有重要的意义。采用通径分析法,对重庆市城市土地利用结构与影响因素之间的关系进行定量厘定,结果表明:①人口增长对居住用地比例的直接效应最大(0.446),其通过经济发展、产业结构变化和交通基础设施发展的间接效应分别为-0.189、0.221、-0.042;经济发展、产业结构变化通过人口增长对居住用地的间接效应较大(0.420、0.309)。②产业结构变化、经济发展对工业用地比例的直接效应为-1.357和1.236,对公共服务用地比例的直接效应为1.387、-1.100;人口增长通过经济发展对工业用地比例和公共服务用地比例的间接效应分别为1.163、-1.036,作用方向相反。③经济发展、交通基础设施发展和产业结构变化是影响绿地比例的重要因素;人口增长通过经济发展后的间接效应(0.451)显著于直接效应(-0.117)。④经济发展、产业结构变化和人口增长及三者的耦合作用是影响城市用地结构的主要因素。

Path Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Urban Land Use Strucrure: A Case Study of Chongqing

It is significant to quantitatively analyze the direct and indirect effects of driving factors on urban land use structure for macro-control and optimization of urban land use.Method of path analysis was employed.The results indicate: 1) Direct effect of population growth to the proportion of residential is 0.446,the indirect effects are-0.189,0.221,-0.042 through economic development,industrial structure change and transport infrastructure development;the indirect effects of economic development,industrial structure change are 0.420,0.309 through population growth.2) The direct effects of industrial structure change and economic development to the proportion of industrial are-1.357,1.236,respectively;the direct effects to the proportion of public service land are 1.387,-1.100;the indirect of population growth to the proportion of industrial land and public service land are 1.163,-1.036 through economic development,but the effect direction is opposite.3) economic development,transport infrastructure development and industrial structure change are the main driving factors of the proportion the green space;the indirect(0.451) is bigger than the indirect effect(-0.117) of population growth to the proportion of green space through economic development.4) economic development,industrial structure change,population growth and their coupling effect are the main driving factors of urban land use structure.