黄河流域空气污染的空间格局演化及影响因素

基于2008—2017年黄河流域工业SO₂和PM_2.5两类典型空气污染物数据，首先刻画了两者的空间演化格局，并运用空间面板杜宾模型（SPDM）从直接效应和间接效应两方面对两者的影响因素进行对比分析。结果表明：① 工业SO₂和PM_2.5污染均存在显著的空间集聚特征，从东南至西北方向呈现梯度递减趋势；二者在城市尺度均存在显著的正向空间关联性，但PM_2.5污染的空间关联性比工业SO₂更强；② 2008—2017年，工业SO₂和PM_2.5污染有所缓解，其中工业SO₂排放强度迅速下降；而PM_2.5质量浓度下降相对缓慢，仍是黄河流域主要的空气污染源。③ 产业结构、技术创新、能源效率、人口规模、经济发展、工业规模等是影响黄河流域空气污染的主要因素，但PM_2.5的影响因素更加复杂多样化。其中，技术创新能力和经济发展水平的提升虽然在研究期内加剧了本地工业SO₂污染的排放强度，但却能缓解周边城市的工业SO₂和PM_2.5污染；工业规模的扩大会加剧本地和邻近城市的PM_2.5污染。

Spatial Evolution and Influencing Factors of Spatial Agglomeration Pattern of Air Pollution in the Yellow River Basin

The Yellow River Basin plays a very important strategic role in China’s economic and social development and ecological security. Based on the air pollution data of industrial SO₂ and PM_2.5 in the Yellow River Basin from 2008 to 2017, this article firstly describes the spatial evolution pattern of industrial SO₂ and PM_2.5 and then uses the spatial panel Durbin model (SPDM) to compare and analyze the influencing factors of the two types of atmospheric pollutants from the direct and indirect effects. The results are as follows: 1) Both industrial SO₂ and PM_2.5 pollution have significant spatial agglomeration which shows a gradient decline trend from southeast to northwest direction. There is a significant positive spatial correlation between industrial SO₂ and PM_2.5 from the prefecture-level city scale while the spatial correlation of PM_2.5 is stronger the that of industrial SO₂. 2) The pollution of industrial SO₂ and PM_2.5 had been alleviated from 2008 to 2017. The average emission intensity of industrial SO₂ decreased rapidly while the average PM_2.5 decreased relatively slowly. PM_2.5 is still the main air pollution source in the Yellow River Basin. 3) The optimization of the industrial structure (OIS), energy efficiency (EE), technological innovation (Inno), population (POP), economic development (pcGDP), and industrial scale (Ind) are the main factors affecting air pollution in the Yellow River Basin. However, the influencing factors of PM_2.5 are more complex and diverse. The improvement of technological innovation and economic development will increase the emission intensity of local SO₂ pollution while it can alleviate the pollution of industrial SO₂ and PM_2.5 in neighboring cities. The expansion of industrial scale aggravates air pollution both locally and in neighboring cities during the study period (2008-2017). Therefore, this article proposes policy recommendations from 3 aspects: improving the city’s innovation capability, accelerating the upgrading of the industrial structure and strengthening joint prevention and control.