地铁城市人口分布演变规律研究——以日本福冈市为例

发展以地铁为骨干的城市公共交通系统,有利于引导城市人口的空间重构,为优化城市形态和结构提供可能。利用1980~2007年的人口统计数据,对日本福冈市的人口分布重心偏移、城区间人口份额转移和地铁沿线区块人口分布均匀程度等方面展开定量分析,发现福冈市地铁发展的关键时间点、线路的覆盖区域和发展次序对城市人口分布演变有着深刻影响。通过对地铁发展与城市人口分布演变之间的内在联系研究,为当前正处于快速城市化阶段的中国城市寻求合理的发展模式,提供借鉴。

The Evolution of Population Distribution in Metro City: A Case of Fukuoka City,Japan

Developing the metro as the backbone of urban public transport system, can guide the spatial restructuring of urban population and improve the urban structural pattern. Based on the population statistical data of Fukuoka city during 1980 to 2007, the paper uses quantitative methods to analyze the relationship between the development of metro system and the changing pattern of urban population distribution. First, the analysis of shift routes of urban population gravity indicates that different development order of metro projects has a significant impact on urban population distribution. Specifically, the population gravity considerably shifted during the five years that Kuko line and Hakozaki line were under construction, and it experienced another round of dramatic shift in the following five years after the two lines opened. Second, the shift-share analysis of population illustrates the dispersion trend of urban population resembles centrifugation process of urban development. Since the first metro line opened in 1981, the urban population rapidly diffused from traditional central district (Hakata district and Chuo district) to suburban areas including western district and eastern district. Third, the Gini coefficient and Concentration index of areas along three metro lines show that the coverage areas of different metro lines considerably influence the population even degree in the areas. In conclusion, the changing pattern of population distribution in Fukuoka is fundamentally influenced by the critical time, coverage areas, and the development order of metro system.