中国风电减排CO2的成本测算及其时空分异

以风电并网利用为主的风能资源快速开发和利用已产生了显著的能源替代、CO₂减排和推动地区经济发展等良性效应,开展中国风电减排CO₂成本测算及其时空分异的探究对于准确认识风能在能源系统中地位、明确风电发展方向和制定应对气候变化对策具有重要作用。在明确风电电价测算方法和构建风电减排CO₂成本测算模型的基础上,通过对当前中国典型风电项目技术经济数据的收集和分析以及通过学习曲线模型分析,测算了不同风能等级区、不同省份不同时期的中国风电减排CO₂成本。结果表明,在当前水平下,中国在风能极丰富区、丰富区、较丰富区、一般区、贫乏区风电减排CO₂的成本分别为120元/t、182元/t、243元/t、367元/t、737元/t;不同省份减排成本差异很大,最高值和最低值分别为783元/t和39元/t,且呈现出沿海省份减排成本低于内陆省份,减排成本空间分布与风能资源存在一定错位的现象。在2008~2050年期间,中国风电减排CO₂成本呈持续下降趋势,预计在2020年风电开始具备与常规火电竞争的能力。

CO2 Emission Reduction Cost by Wind Power in China and Its Temporal and Spatial Differentiation

Taking wind power integration as mainstream development style, China has played an important role in substituting fossil energy, reducing CO₂ emission and promoting regional economy through rapid wind resource exploration and utilization in recent years. Aiming at having a better understanding of wind power status in energy system, classifying future direction of wind power and establishing countermeasures against climate change, it is crucial to calculate the cost of CO₂ emission reduction by wind power and study its temporal and spatial differentiation in China. First, this paper presented the calculation method of wind power price and then established the calculation model of CO₂ emission reduction cost by wind power. Second, the CO₂ emission reduction costs in different wind resource grading areas, different provinces were measured by conducting the above model and using preliminary collected and analyzed technical and economic data of wind power project. Third, CO₂ emission reduction costs in 2008~2050 were also studied by forecasting wind power installation capacity and initial investment, which were predicted by using learning curve model. The result showed that the costs of CO₂ emission reduction by wind power in extremely abundant region, abundant region, relatively abundant region, general region and deficient region equaled to 120 Yuan/t, 182 Yuan/t, 243 Yuan/t, 367 Yuan/t and 737 Yuan/t, respectively. The costs varied drastically in different provinces. The highest cost is 783 Yuan/t, while the lowest is 39 Yuan/t. Since coastal provinces have richer wind resources and lower costs, the spatial distribution of CO₂ emission reduction costs does not fit wind resource very well. The cost will gradually decreased during 2008~2050 and China’s wind power will be attractive against conventional thermal power in 2020 according to our prediction.