东北地区可持续生计安全时空分异格局及障碍因子诊断

随着“新东北现象”的出现,东北地区转型与可持续发展问题突显,可持续生计安全亟待提升。以2003~2015年东北地区37个地级市为例,基于可持续生计安全框架构建可持续生计安全评价体系,采用灰色关联TOPSIS模型对东北地区可持续生计安全进行综合测度,并运用空间自相关、地理探测器和障碍度模型等方法探讨其时空格局演变规律、空间分异成因和障碍因素。结果表明：① 东北地区可持续生计安全指数总体偏低,整体上空间分异特征明显,但随时间推移,区域间差异逐渐缩小。② 空间集聚性特征显著,热点区和次热点区分布主要呈现哈长地区和沈大沿线地区两大组团,次冷点区和冷点区呈边缘式分布于内蒙古东部、黑龙江北部、吉林南部等经济落后地区。③ 工业化水平、经济总量、工资收入、二氧化硫排放强度和投资强度等是影响东北地区可持续生计安全的主要因素。④ 资源环境支撑力和经济生产力是制约东北地区可持续生计安全提升的两大短板;空间阻力模式以“经济效率>生态安全>社会公平”类型占主导。最后,提出应将政策与制度因素纳入可持续生计安全框架。

Spatio-temporal Evolution of Sustainable Livelihood Security and Study of Its Obstacle Indicators in Northeast China

With the emergence of new ‘The Northeast China Phenomenon’, the transformation and sustainable development of the Northeast China were highlighted, and sustainable livelihood security needed to be improved urgently. Based on the framework of sustainable livelihood security analysis, the study constructed a evaluation system of sustainable livelihood security including 27 indicators in Northeast China by taking the 37 prefecture level cities of the Northeast China as the research object from 2003 to 2015. By using GRA-TOPSIS model, the study had a comprehensive measure of sustainable livelihoods security in the Northeast China. Based on spatial autocorrelation method, geographical detector and obstacle degree model, the study not only revealed spatio-temporal evolution of sustainable livelihood security, but also analyzed the causes of spatial differentiation and the diagnosis of obstacle factors in the Northeast China since 2003. The result showed that: 1) Sustainable livelihood security index (SLSI) in the Northeast China was on the low level as a whole, and the characteristics of spatial differentiation were obvious, but its regional difference reduced gradually in recent years. 2) The spatial agglomeration of sustainable livelihoods security in the Northeast China presented significantly, and the hot spots and sub hot spots showed the main area including the Shenyang-Dalian and Harbin-Changchun groups; the sub cold area and cold area were marginally distributed in less-developed areas, including the eastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, the northern Heilongjiang Province and the southern Jilin Province. 3) Industrialization level, economic output, wage, emission intensity of sulfur dioxide and investment intensity are the main influencing factors of sustainable livelihood security in Northeast china. 4) The supporting capacity of resources and environment and economic productivity are the two short boards restricting the sustainable livelihood security improvement in Northeast China, and the most dominant type of economic efficiency is the most widely distributed area. Finally, this study put forward the factors of regional policy and system into the framework of sustainable livelihood security analysis.