纳入气候要素的重庆市农业全要素生产率增长时空分布分析

采用全要素生产率F?re-Primont指数,分析了纳入气候要素和非纳入气候要素2种情景的重庆市全要素生产率增长时空变化。结果表明：① 相比于非纳入气候要素情景,纳入气候要素的重庆市农业全要素生产率增长数值尽管偏低,但具有显著的空间分异,且能较好的反映农业技术进步与极端干旱事件对农业生产的影响。② 重庆市农业全要素生产率增长的主要驱动力来自技术进步;而增长阻碍主要来自剩余混合效率,因此应加强农业结构性改革,进一步改善农业生产投入产出结构。③ 受农业发展基础和生产结构的影响,重庆市农业全要素生产率增长较大的地区集中在西部区县;而增长偏低地区集中在主城区。④ 2006年重庆极端干旱事件对农业全要素生产率增长产生显著影响,导致农业全要素生产率增长在2006年明显偏低;各区县受极端干旱事件的影响不同,应根据各区县农业资源条件,有针对性提出适应气候变化的农业生产策略。

Spatial and Temporal Changes of Total Factor Productivity in Agriculture of Chongqing Under Constraints of Climatic Factors

Total factor productivity (TFP) is key for sustainable agriculture, the higher growth of TFP, the more output of agriculture sector. TFP index is often employed to measure growth in the total factor productivity and the source attributed to its growth, which theoretically is defined as the ratio of an aggregate output index to an aggregate input index. In previous literature, the agricultural TFP index has been widely used in different spatial scales of China, such as province regions scale and county regions scale, however, the analysis of agricultural TFP index in Chongqing is scarce. In addition, although the analysis of agricultural TFP index under constraint of resources and environment have been conducted in many studies, our knowledge about the impact of climate change on agricultural TFP growth is still limited, correspondingly the adaptation measures to climate change are also rarely discussed in previous studies. The aim of this study is to detect the spatial and temporal changes of total factor productivity in Chongqing agriculture, and explore the influence of climate change on TFP growth in Chongqing agriculture. The results show that: 1) Under the constraints of climatic factors, the value of TFP growth is relative lower but with more significant spatial heterogeneity, and the change of TFP growth can reflect the influence of climate change and technical change on agricultural production. 2) The drivers of TFP growth come from technical improvement, but negative factor of TFP growth come from mix efficiency change. 3) The high value of TFP growth focused on the western region of Chongqing, however, the lower value focused on the main city of Chongqing. 4) The extreme drought in 2006 led to a lower TFP growth of Chongqing agriculture, so agricultural adaptation measures to climate change should be taken for different regions of Chongqing. Our results can help policy makers identify where agricultural productivity growth is strongest and weakest, and thereby assist in illuminating specific policies and practices on supply-side reform of agricultural structure.