黄河流域旅游经济的时空分异与R/S分析

以黄河流域为主要案例区,采用标准差、基尼系数、变差系数、区位商等指标,分析了1996~2010年黄河流域旅游经济时空分异的发展演化过程,运用分形理论中的R/S分析方法,预测了黄河流域未来旅游经济差距的发展趋势。结果显示：黄河流域旅游经济的绝对差距是逐年增大,相对差异呈现先减小后增大的趋势;各省发展差异明显。如果在原有条件下继续发展,未来黄河流域旅游经济的差距将继续增大。最后为缩小黄河流域旅游经济差距,促进流域旅游经济持续快速发展提出了对策建议。

The Spatio-temporal Variation of Regional Tourism Economy and R/S Analysis in The Huanghe River Basin

This article focuses on the trend of regional tourism economic disparities of the Huanghe River. Using four indices to evaluate the differences between the 9 provinces,including Standard deviation, Gini coefficient, variation coefficient, and location quotient. On the basis of these indices, the R/S analysis is conducted. The outcome of the analysis shows that the change of absolute difference in regional tourism economy is expanding while the change of relative difference is declining. At the same time, it is also found that Shandong, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia are always developed province in tourism economy, however, Qinghai, Ningxia and Gansu are underdeveloped in tourism economy from 1996 to 2008. Sichuan Province was once a developing zone in tourism, with the exploration of tourism resources, it is becoming a developed area in the Huanghe River, while Henan is versa. If the tourism continues to develop under this circumstances, the difference of regional tourism economy will be fluctuant in the rising trend. Finally, the article provides some advice to narrow the regional tourism economic gap.