地震灾害死亡人口快速评估方法对比研究

中国是世界上地震活动最为频繁的国家之一,属于地震多发区。在收集分析国内外关于地震灾害死亡人口评估模型的基础上,选取10种模型以2000年以来中国典型地震灾害为案例验证其适用性。结果表明：① 对于5.7级（含）以下地震,10种模型的评估结果基本都在合理范围内,可采用各评估结果的区间值来支撑应急决策;5.7~6.6级（含）地震,10种评估方法得到的结果表现出不同程度的偏差,可采用多数评估结果指向的死亡人口数量级来支撑应急决策;6.6级以上地震,则只能采用有特定适用范围的基于结构易损性的评估结果来支撑应急决策,且也存在较大的不确定性。② 从地震灾害人员伤亡动态评估方法、地震—地质灾害死亡人口快速评估方法和快速评估软件系统方面进行了相关讨论。此研究可为地震灾害死亡人口快速评估模型的改进与发展提供借鉴。

Comparison Analysis of Rapid Assessment Methodology of Mortality due to Earthquake Disaster

China is one of the countries with high frequency of seismic activity in the world, located in the earthquake prone zone. In 1978-2009, about 80 percent of mortality of natural disaster was caused by seismic activities. "Mortality" is the focus of the work of disaster information statistics, emergency relief and risk assessment. On the basis of collecting and analyzing the domestic and international evaluation model of the death toll of earthquake disaster, 10 models are selected to validate their applicability by the typical earthquake disaster cases in China since 2000. The results showed that: 1) For the seismic with magnitude of below Ms 5.7 (inclusive), the evaluation results of the 10 models are basically in a reasonable range and the range of results could support the emergency decision of earthquake disaster relief (EDR); for Ms 5.7-6.6 (inclusive) seismic activities, the results from 10 kinds of assessment methods showed varying degrees of error and the level of most results could support the emergency decision of EDR; for seismic with Ms 6.6 and above, the evaluation by structural vulnerability model can get relatively ideal results in a certain extent based on the specific scope of application. 2) Most models in this article basically belong to the "deterministic formula methodology", including: the relationship between casualties and building damage ratio, and intensity, population density, and the destruction of housing area. The limitations of certain areas or cases will inevitably lead to the large differences between evaluation results and the actual results.The main reasons of large differences include:the number of mortality often was caused by the earthquake disaster chain, not a single shake. The special housing structure and living habits in some areas also lead to great differences between the actual death population and the evaluation results. 3) Three aspects were proposed to improve the earthquake mortality rapid assessment, including the establishment of dynamic assessment method of seismic, and seismic-geologic disaster death method, the establishment of earthquake disaster death population rapid assessment software system. It can be used for reference of the improvement and development of the rapid assessment model of earthquake disaster.