中国人口老龄化区域差异及驱动机制研究

基于中国第五、六次人口普查数据,分析中国省域人口老龄化的程度、速度、社会经济影响、空间差异及其驱动机制。结果表明：① 2000~2010年中国人口老龄化处于初级老龄化阶段且不断加深,区域差异缩小,东部地区低速增长,中西部地区老龄化与养老负担快速增加。老年人口密度属较低密度区,从东向西呈梯度降低。② 中国省域人口老龄化程度及空间布局是人口自然增长、人口机械增长、经济水平等因素相互调节与空间分异的综合结果。③ 各机制系数空间异质性的综合作用促使老龄化大致由南北向分异转变为东西向分异的空间格局。省际人口迁移从根本上制约如今的中国人口老龄化空间格局。

Regional Variations and Driving Mechanism of Aging Population in China

Aging population has been more and more complex as well as one of new normal and core issues which the social development must face in China. Based on the population census data in 2000 and 2010, this study explores the regional differences of Chinese ageing population in terms of the degree, pace, social economic impact, and analyzes its driving mechanism using the Geographical Weighed Regression Model (GWR). The results show as follows: 1) During 2000-2010, Chinese population as a whole has entered the stage of ageing, and most of regions stay at the early stage. 2) Except for Shanghai, all other regions are experiencing the acceleration of ageing, and the regional disparity in the degree of ageing is decreasing. 3) The demand for the elder support has increased rapidly. 4) The overall density of aged population remains at the low level, but the local density increases from the west to the east, with the high density zones cluster in a few eastern municipalities. 5) The degree of population aging and spatial layout in China province are the comprehensive results of population natural growth, population growth, mechanical growth and economic level and so on. Among them, the primary leading factor has changed from GDP per capita to emigration rate. In the early stage of economic development, per capita GDP plays a decisive role in promoting. With the development of economy, the influence of per capita GDP on the aging population has decreased. The phenomenon of “not getting rich before getting old” appears, what’s more the phenomenon of “decoupling” between GDP per capita and aging appears in some areas. The rate of population emigration is positively related to population aging, which promoting the degree and speed of population aging as well as increasing the burden on the elderly in the central and western regions. 6) The comprehensive effects of spatial heterogeneity of the mechanism coefficients has promoted the population aging roughly divided the spatial pattern from North-South (with the Yangtze River Basin as the boundary) to East-West differentiation (with the central region as the boundary) in China. The provincial population migration fundamentally restricts the current spatial pattern of China’s population aging. The comprehensive effects of various factors on the central and western regions are slightly stronger than those in the east. 7) The largest population emigration areas are still in the Central and Western Regions, which leading to faster growth rate in the Central and Western Region than in the east and increasing the burden on the elderly rapidly and greater than that in the east. However, the eastern region is the largest population immigration area in china. Natural growth rate has become the main mechanism to curb the rapid development of population aging in the eastern region.