中国三大城市群电子商务快递物流网络空间结构及其形成机制研究

以中国长三角、京津冀、珠三角三大城市群为案例，基于中国智能物流骨干网（China Smart Logistic Network，CSN）关系数据，采用社会网络分析、随机森林分类算法、QAP分析等研究方法，在县区尺度上探索电子商务快递物流网络空间结构特征及其形成机制。研究发现：① 三大城市群电商快递物流网络密度较高，已形成典型的网络式空间结构。其中长三角城市群网络呈圈层蛛网式结构，县区间联系强度以环杭州湾为中心向外围梯度衰减；京津冀城市群网络受制于行政藩篱，形成“北京?天津”双核心网络结构；珠三角城市群网络联系强度自区域外围由弱到强逐渐向珠江口东岸方向变化，形成“穗（广州）?莞（东莞）?深（深圳）”快递物流廊道。② 三大城市群中物流输出型县区多集中在区域中部，依托中心城市向外物流辐散，而物流输入型县区多分散于外围。③ 城市群电商快递物流网络形成主要受人均可支配收入、常住人口和距离等因素影响。研究结果对于丰富城市网络理论，促进城市群快递物流协调发展，提升现代服务业水平和城市群整体竞争力具有重要意义。

Spatial Structure and Formation Mechanism of E-commerce Express Logist-ics Network in the Three Major Urban Agglomerations of China

The modern logistics industry has the advantage of going deep into all industries and is a new engine for economic growth of urban agglomerations. The express logistics industry, as a rapidly developing service industry, has gradually become a leading industry which promotes the transformation of circulation and stimulates consumption upgrading. And it further promotes the integration of urban agglomerations. Studying the spatial layout of express logistics network and exploring the network formation mechanism are of great significance for promoting the coordinated development of express logistics and improving the modern service industry in urban agglomerations. This research selected three major urban agglomerations in China, including the Yangtze River Delta, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and the Pearl River Delta as the cases, and the social network analysis, random forest classification methods and Quadratic Assignment Procedure methods were applied to analyzing the spatial structure characteristics of e-commerce express logistics networks at county scale and further explore its formation mechanism. The results show that: 1) The network density values are high, indicating that all three major urban agglomerations have formed typical network space structures, and the flow paths of e-commerce express logistics between cities are extensive. In the Yangtze River Delta, the e-commerce express logistics network has formed a hierarchy-shaped spider web structure, and the intensity of inter-county connections gradient decreases from strong to weak with Hangzhou Bay as the center. The network character has formed a “Beijing-Tianjin” dual core structure in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei due to administrative barriers. The network has formed a “Sui (Guangzhou)-Guan (Dongguan)-Shen (Shenzhen)” logistics link corridor in the Pearl River Delta and the intensity of inter-county connections increased from the periphery of the region to the east bank of the Pearl River Estuary. In addition, connection intensity in all the above e-commerce express logistics networks show the effect of hierarchical diffusion rather than proximity diffusion. 2) The logistics output-oriented counties are concentrated in the middle of the urban agglomeration, relying on the central city for outward express logistics dispersion; the logistics input-oriented counties are scattered in the periphery. Furthermore, the logistics balanced counties in the Yangtze River Delta are widely distributed; the low logistics input-oriented counties distributed in the northern Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei; and the high logistics output-oriented counties show an obvious centralized distribution pattern in the east bank of the Pearl River Estuary. 3) The formation of e-commerce express logistics networks are mainly influenced by per capita disposable income, permanent resident population and inter-county distance. The results are important to enrich the urban network theory as well as enhance the level of modern service industry and the overall competitiveness of urban agglomerations.