“一带一路”沿线国家投资悖论的形成机理研究

投资与贸易合作是“一带一路”倡议实施的重点。投资者往往会选择低风险且具有高收益潜力的国家或地区进行高投资，然而中国企业对“一带一路”沿线国家的投资却存在高风险与高投资并存的投资悖论现象。本文遴选2013—2018年“一带一路”沿线吸纳中国对外直接投资金额较高且存在较高投资风险的国家，解析这些国家的时空特点，探究投资悖论的形成机理。研究发现：（1）从空间视角看，投资悖论国家大多数为中国的周边邻国。从“一带一路”的空间走向看，海上丝绸之路沿线国家分布较多；从分布密度看，东南亚地区是投资悖论国家分布的集中区。（2）从时间视角看，高风险高投资在时间上具有延续性，6年间有13个国家出现两次以上的投资悖论现象。按投资悖论出现的频次，将“一带一路”沿线国家分为高频国家、中频国家和低频国家。（3）从形成机理看，地缘区位、能源资源、地缘政治、地缘经济和人文社会这五个因素分别从不同的方面作用于投资悖论的产生。

The formation mechanism of investment paradox countries along the Belt and Road

Investment and trade cooperation are the focus of the Belt and Road construction. Investors generally choose countries or regions with low risk and high return potential for high investment. However, China's investment in the countries along the Belt and Road has the paradox of high risk and high investment. This paper selects countries along the Belt and Road from 2013 to 2018 with high OFDI and high investment risks, analyzes the spatio-temporal characteristics of these countries, and explores the formation mechanism of investment paradox. The research finds that: (1) From the spatial perspective, most of the investment paradox countries are China's neighbors. From the spatial trend of the Belt and Road, there are more countries along the Maritime Silk Road. Southeast Asia is the region with the most concentrated distribution of investment paradox countries from the perspective of distribution density. (2) From the perspective of time, high-risk and high-investment phenomena persist, and 13 countries have more than two investment paradoxes in six years. According to the frequency of paradoxes, this paper classifies the countries along the Belt and Road into high-frequency countries, intermediate-frequency countries, and low-frequency countries. (3) In term of formation mechanism, five factors such as geographical location, energy resources, geopolitics, geopolitics and human society play important role on investment paradox.