中韩双边关系演进过程及影响因子探析

韩国是连接黄海和日本海重要的通道口，其地理位置有着特殊的地缘作用。中韩关系的发展对于保障中国在东北亚地区的国防安全、地缘战略政策的实施等均具有重要的现实意义。利用事件数据分析法对2006—2017年中韩双边关系事件进行量化分析，进而归纳出两国双边关系的演化特征及影响因素，最后提出对中韩双边关系发展的建议与展望。结论表明：①2006—2017年，中韩关系大致经历了四个阶段：快速发展阶段、平稳发展阶段、波动调整阶段和波动下滑阶段；②中韩双边关系受国家综合实力和权力优势的改变、韩国领导人的政治倾向与对外政策、地缘作用、域外大国的干涉、朝鲜半岛局势的变化等因素的影响；③中韩两国应积极加深中韩间的复合依赖关系、建立多渠道沟通机制、基于均势秩序建立多边合作机制等建议。

Analysis on the evolution process and influencing factors of China-ROK bilateral relations ——Based on event data analysis

South Korea is an important channel connecting the Yellow Sea and the Sea of Japan, and its geographical position has a special geopolitical influence. However, the development of China–South Korea relations play a vital role in guaranteeing China's national interests in the Korean Peninsula, national defense security in Northeast Asia, the implementation of the geo strategic policy and so on. Thus, the event data analysis method was used to analyze the bilateral relations between China and South Korea from 2006 to 2017, and then the evolution characteristics and influencing factors of bilateral relations were summed up. Finally, the suggestions and prospects for the development of the relations between China and South Korea were put forward. The conclusions are as follows: (1) the relationship between China and South Korea roughly experienced the four stages from 2006 to 2017: Rapid development, Steady development, Fluctuant adjustment and fluctuant decline. (2)The bilateral relations between China and ROK are deeply influenced by changes in national comprehensive strength and power advantage, political orientation and foreign policy of South Korean leaders, geopolitical factors, interference by foreign powers, and changes in the situation on the Korean Peninsula. (3)Based on the theory of complex interdependence and the thought of the order of balance, suggestions have been proposed. Such as, China and ROK should actively deepen the complex dependency relationship, establish multi-channel communication mechanism and establish multilateral cooperation mechanism based on the balance of power order.