中国崛起的国际地缘战略研究

围堵与反围堵是世界历史上大国崛起的常态。本文立足于结构现实主义的国际关系原理,运用地理学的空间相互作用和区位选择等理论,探讨中国在和平崛起过程中权力一利益半径外延的必然性、与本文为竞争利益空间而发生的全球性战略互动,以及由此诱发的周边地缘风险。作者指出,由于区域的非均质性,中国向外实现战略突破时只能依循非均衡路径,即集中优势资源在空间阻滞效应较弱、"投资"回报较高的局部地区率先实现突破,并以此为"极轴"向其他地区辐射战略影响。在全球层面上,由于综合国力的结构性缺陷,目前中国宜把战略资源优先投放到"低政治"领域,运用渗透性较强的经济手段,争取尽快在非洲、拉美与西欧等地获取必要的战略立足点;而在区域层面上,中国应追求在"高政治"领域有所建树,选择与中国在地理上接近、文化亲缘性较强、战略互信度较高的国家进行对外拓展,如:巴基斯坦、缅甸、蒙古、塔吉克斯坦和哈萨克斯坦等地。两者相辅相成,共同组成了21世纪中国和平崛起的国际地缘战略。

Geography of Containment and Anti-containment of China＇s Peaceful Rise

Historically, a rising power cannot evade containment from existing hegemony, which is determined by the law of the jungle of international relations. Based on the theory of structural realism of IR reshaped by spatial interaction and location choice theories in geography, this paper analyses： i） the strategic clash between a rising China and the West with the United States as the core, 2） the geo-political risks on China from the surrounding nations, and then 3） the best direction and location for China＇s strategic breakthrough under containment. The result shows： it is wise for China to take the non-e- quilibrium development path to expand its sphere of influence. On the global level, China should lay more strategic resources in ＂low political＂ area and seek for strategic breakthrough firstly in Africa, Latin America, Western Eu- rope and so on. And, on the regional level, China should pay more attention on ＂high political＂ issues and give priority to those neighboring countries like Pakistan, Myanmar, Mongolia, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan, whose location or re- sources are vital to China＇s security and/or economic development. These two level of spatial expand paths are complementary geostrategy for China＇s peaceful rise.