“一带一路”背景下的中国与伊朗贸易结构与潜力分析

“一带一路”倡议为中国与沿线国家的贸易提供了一个新的平台。伊朗是“一带一路”倡议的节点国家，研究中伊贸易结构与潜力不仅可以深化两国经贸合作，更有助于推动我国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易往来。基于此，该文利用2010—2016年中伊双边贸易数据，结合比较优势指数、互补性指数以及劳伦斯指数，从多个角度深入分析两国贸易的结构；其次通过建立引力模型，评估中伊双边贸易潜力。研究结果表明：1）2010—2016年中国对伊朗出口贸易额增加48.01%，促使双边贸易逐渐趋于平衡；2）伊朗较好地发挥了对中贸易的互补优势，而中国未能发挥对伊贸易中石料等产品的互补优势；3）中伊双边贸易产品出口结构年际变化呈明显不规律性；4）中伊贸易潜力缩小16.89%，双边商品贸易发展空间有限，需要开拓新的贸易类型。研究认为未来中伊两国需要建立贸易应急备案，增强贸易互信，加大文化交流，借助“一带一路”平台实现创新驱动，寻求双边贸易新的增长点。

An analysis of trade structure and potential between China and Iran under the background of the "Belt and Road" Initiative

"The Belt and Road" initiative provides a new platform for China's trade with countries along the line. Iran is a node country in "The Belt and Road" initiative. Based on this, this paper uses the bilateral trade data between China and Iran from 2010 to 2016, combining the comparative advantage index, complementarity index and Lawrence index to analyze the trade structure of the two countries. Secondly, the potential of bilateral trade between China and Iran is assessed by establishing a gravity model. The results show that: 1)China's export to Iran increased by 48.01% from 2010 to 2016, prompting bilateral trade to gradually balance; 2)Iran has given full play to its complementary advantages in trade with China, while China has not fully realized its complementary advantages in trade with Iran; 3)The structure of bilateral trade products between China and Iran has remained steady; 4)China's trade potential with Iran shrunk by 16.89%. The study shows that China and Iran need to seek new strategies for bilateral trade with the help of the advantage platform of the "Belt and Road" Initiative.