海南省城乡关系演化及驱动机制研究

推进城乡一体化协调发展是事关海南自由贸易港建设成效的重点任务之一，新的发展环境及政策框架正促使海南省城乡关系快速转型。采用变异系数法、耦合协调度模型、回归模型，从城乡空间、经济和社会等维度，分析了建省办特区以来海南省城乡关系演化特征及驱动机制。结果表明：①建省办特区以来，海南省城乡协调综合指数呈现明显的先降后升态势，由1988年的0.319 9到1993年的0.153 9，2019年达0.851 9；②海南省城乡各子系统耦合度和耦合协调度均呈波动上升态势，耦合度主要处于磨合和高水平耦合阶段，耦合协调度由轻度失调转变为初级协调，最后达到中级协调，城乡各子系统间相互作用增强；③海南省城乡关系演化经历城乡二元加剧、城乡二元固化、城乡关系趋缓和城乡一体化初期四个阶段，低水平城乡均衡发展是重要特征，高质量推进城乡一体化协调发展是关键；④经济发展对城乡协调发展影响最为明显，但呈负相关，其次为市场消费、产业结构、乡村发展、交通通达性、城镇发展和政府行为，对外开放对城乡关系演化影响相对较弱；⑤制度创新、对外合作、产业优化、城镇建设和乡村振兴是推进城乡融合发展的重要路径。

Evolution and driving mechanism of urban-rural relationship in Hainan Province

Promoting the development of urban-rural integration is one of the key tasks relating to the construction of Hainan Free Trade Port. This study examined the evolution characteristics of urban-rural relations and the driving mechanism in Hainan province from the dimensions of urban and rural space, economy and society using the variation coefficient method, coupling coordination degree model, and regression model. The results show that: ①The comprehensive index of urban-rural coordination in Hainan showed an obvious trend of first decreasing and then rising since the establishment of provinces and special zones, which changed from 0.319 9 in 1988 to 0.153 9 in 1993, and then reached 0.851 9 in 2019;② The coupling degree is mainly in the running-in and high-level coupling stages, the degree of coupling coordination changed from mild mal-adjustment to primary coordination, and then achieved intermediate coordination, increasing the interaction between urban and rural subsystems;③The evolution of rural-urban relations in Hainan has experienced such four stages as intensified rural-urban dual, solidified rural-urban dual, moderated rural-urban relationship and initial rural-urban integration, with an important feature of Low-level balanced development, and the key is to promote high-quality urban-rural integration development;④Economic Development has the most obvious impact on the coordinated development between urban and rural areas, but it is negatively related, followed by market consumption, industrial structure, rural development, transportation accessibility, urban development and government behavior, the influence of opening to the outside world on the evolution of urban-rural relationship is relatively weak;⑤Institutional innovation, foreign cooperation, industrial optimization, urban development and rural revitalization are important ways to promote integrated urban-rural development.