甘肃省面向“一带一路”沿线出口贸易格局演变及其影响因素分析

“一带一路”倡议为西北内陆地区扩大对外开放、共享新时代国家改革发展成果带来了重大机遇。在“一带一路”倡议背景下，考察内陆省份对外贸易的地理空间转向及其影响因素，具有重要的现实意义。利用2000—2016年中国海关进出口数据库，采用GIS空间分析法、RCA指数，分析了甘肃省出口贸易产业的时空格局演变，并通过构建拓展引力模型，对甘肃省面向“一带一路”沿线国家或地区的出口贸易影响因素进行深入分析。研究表明：（1）21世纪以来，甘肃省对外出口的贸易规模和份额发生了较大的空间转向，主要在“一路”和“一带”东、西两个方向呈现波动转移，出口市场多元化的态势日趋显现；（2）金融危机前后两阶段各产业RCA指数走势分化明显，初级产品和资源性制成品逐渐失去比较优势，中高技术含量制成品的出口份额有所增加，但仍处于比较劣势地位；（3）模型实证检验得出双边经济规模、华人数量对于贸易增长具有促进作用，地理距离和人口数量呈负向作用关系。最后在此基础上提出相应的政策建议。

Analysis of export trade’s spatial pattern evolution and influencing factors of Gansu Province with "the Belt and Road" areas

" The Belt and Road" initiative has brought significant opportunities for the opening up of the Northwest interior and the sharing of new achievements in the reform and development of the country. Under the background of "the Belt and Road" initiative, It is of great practical significance that we study on the geographical spatial turn and influencing factors of foreign trade in inland provinces..Based on China Customs Import and Export Database during 2000-2016, by using GIS spatial analysis method and RCA index, this paper main describes the evolution of spatial and temporal pattern of export trade industry in Gansu Province. In addition, a extended gravity model is built to analyze the influencing factors of export trade in Gansu province and 41 countries along "the Belt and Road". The results show that：(1)Since 2000, the trade scale and share of Gansu's export trades have undergone a large spatial shift, mainly in the east and west directions of "21st-Century Maritime Silk Road" and "the Silk Road Economic Belt".The diversification of export market is appearing.(2)During the two stages before and after the global financial crisis, the trend of RCA index of each industry was obviously divided. Primary products and resource-based manufactured goods gradually lost their comparative advantages, and the export share of manufactured goods with medium and high technology content increased.(3)The empirical test of the model shows that bilateral economic scale and the number of overseas Chinese have a positive effect on trade growth, while geographical distance and population have a negative effect. On this basis, we put forward corresponding policy recommendations.