中国经济空间发展格局演变及其驱动力分析

在Mann-Kendall方法基础上对1978年以来中国经济发展进行突变点分析。结合传统数理统计方法及空间分析模型,在Arc GIS、Geo DA等软件支持下,以省级行政区为研究单元,以人均GDP为测度指标,从时间、空间、关联性、驱动因子等视角对改革开放以来我国经济发展状况进行深入分析。结果表明:我国经济总体呈快速发展趋势,东中西部发展差异显著,但总体差异逐步减小;我国经济空间分布呈现出东北-西南格局,主半轴方向上表现为收缩趋势,辅半轴方向上则为波动扩张格局;我国经济发展高水平区不断增多,低水平区不断减少,最终消失,总体经济水平得到显著提高;根据关联性分析得出扩散型主要集中于东部地区,坍塌型主要分布于中部地区,东西差异依旧明显;改革开放以来推动我国经济发展主要是以消费为主、投资为辅的"双轮驱动"逐步转向由投资、出口、消费协调推动,区域协调发展势头良好。

The economic development pattern evolution and driven factors in China

Though a point mutation analysis on the China’s economic develop-ment since 1978 on the basis of the Mann-Kendall method. Combining traditional methods of mathematical statistics and spatial analysis model, in the support of ArcGIS, GeoDa, we studied on China’s economic development. The results showed that: the rapid development of Chinese economy showed a rapid develop-ment trend overall, but there are significant difference between east, central and western regions, although the difference gradually reduced; China's econo-my showing the spatial distribution of northeast - southwest pattern. Direc-tion of the main axle performed a contraction trend, and direction of the aux-iliary axle performed a fluctuate and expand pattern. The high level of eco-nomic development zones are increasing, and its lowest level area are declin-ing, and eventually disappear, the economic of our country has been signifi-cantly improved; According to association analysis, the diffusion mainly con-centrated in the eastern region, the collapse is mainly distributed in the central region, differences between East and West still exist; China's econom-ic development is primarily a consumption-based, supplemented by "wheeled"gradually shifted from investment, exports, consumption driven coordination, the regional development have a coordinated momentum.