暴雨洪水灾害人口损失评估方法研究进展

在气候变化与城市化背景下,暴雨洪水灾害损失风险加剧,给人口生命安全带来极大威胁,评估暴雨洪水灾害的人口损失成为灾害风险研究关注的焦点问题。本文基于灾害系统理论,归纳了基于“致灾因子(H)—承灾体(V)—孕灾环境(E)—人口损失(D)”的暴雨洪水灾害人口损失评估的概念框架;基于现有国内外典型研究,梳理了相应的指标体系和研究方法,以“影响指标—损失指标—分析方法”多维图显示,认为“综合影响因素—人口损失”关系分析是评估暴雨洪水灾害人口损失的核心。目前人口损失的评估方法依据其考虑的要素可划分为：基于“H-D”关系的脆弱性曲线法、基于“H-V-E-D”关系的多要素综合法和刻画过程的灾害系统模拟法等。着重从数据可获取性和方法有效性两方面进行综述,认为单一方法不能满足人口损失风险评估的需求,因此从灾害系统角度出发,从单一要素向多要素综合发展、从指标统计分析向过程动态模拟发展、从单一方法向综合集成方法发展是人口损失及风险定量评估的发展趋势。

Review on methods for estimating the loss of life induced by heavy rain and floods

Under the background of global climate change and urbanization, the risk of heavy rain and floods increases rapidly, which poses great threats on the safety of the global population. It has become a focus in the field of natural disaster risk research to estimate the loss of life induced by heavy rain and floods. Based on the natural disaster system theory, this article first introduces a conceptual framework for estimating the loss of life induced by heavy rain and floods , which includes hazard (H)—exposure units (V)—disaster formative environment (E)—life losses (D). This framework indicates that life loss is a result of the interaction between these multiple elements. Based on existing research in China and internationally, the corresponding indicators and methods are summarized, which are presented in a multidimensional diagram of “impact indicator—loss indicator—analytical method.” This review article considers that the analysis of the multiple impacting factors-life losses relationship is at the core of the estimation of life loss from heavy rain and floods. Three types of methods for estimating the loss of life induced by heavy rain and floods are reviewed, including the vulnerability curve method that focuses on the relationship of H-D,integrated multi-factor analysis method that analyzes the relationship of H-V-E-D, and disaster system simulation method that considers the process of system evolution. Considering the availability of data and effectiveness of methods, no single method can meet the needs of risk assessment of life losses. From the perspective of natural disaster system, quantitative assessment of life loss and risk induced by heavy rain and floods should develop from including single factor to multiple factors; from using statistical analysis of indicators to dynamic simulation of processes; and from employing single method to the integration of multiple methods.