基于户籍比较的特大城市住宅价格时空分异研究——以长沙市为例

为揭示中国特大城市住房市场中，不同购房群体在住房价格空间特征上的差异，论文对购房人群的户籍归属地进行划分，以“本地—外来”的视角分别刻画了长沙本地与外来(长沙户籍与非长沙户籍)2类购房者房价格局的时空演进。采取动态空间滞后特征模型(STAR-Hedonic)分析了区位、景观、邻里等因素对2类购房者房价的影响。研究发现：(1)长沙外来购房者房价梯度下降更快，空间更平滑。(2)长沙房价空间一江两岸双中心的总体格局逐步成型。传统CBD五一广场对城市房价的重要性在下降，但是对本地人房价梯度和价格弹性程度维持较高水平，副中心梅溪湖新城对外来人群房价的影响因子的提升幅度更大。(3)外来购房者对住宅品质和邻近配套有更高的支付倾向。(4)楼市的繁荣期和调控期，周边交易价格对2类购房者的影响程度不同。论文从功能需求、主观因素、政策区别和经济动机4个方面探究了2类购房者房价空间分异的成因。在“房住不炒”背景下，关注不同人群房价空间演进和影响因素的变化趋势，有助于特大城市房地产市场“精准调控”的实施。

Spatiotemporal variation of housing price in megacities based on household registration: Taking Changsha City as an example

In order to reveal the differences in the spatial pattern of housing prices among different buyers in China's megacities, this study divided the household registration of housing buyers from Changsha City into two categories and depicted the spatial and temporal evolution of housing price patterns for these two groups of buyers respectively. A spatiotemporal auto regression model (STAR) was employed to analyze the influence of location, landscape, neighborhood, and other factors on the housing prices. We found that: 1) The housing price gradient of Changsha's non-registered household buyers has fallen faster than others while their space is more smooth. 2) The overall pattern of Changsha housing price space with "one river, two banks, and two centers" has gradually emerged. The influence of traditional central business district (CBD)—the Wuyi Square—on housing prices is declining, but it maintains a high level of housing price gradient and price elasticity for the locals. The sub-center Meixi Lake New City has a greater impact on the housing prices for outside buyer. 3) Outside buyers have a higher propensity to pay for housing quality and neighboring facilities. 4) In the period of prosperity and regulation of the housing market, the transaction prices of surrounding housing projects have different effects on the two types of housing buyers. This study explored the causes of the spatial differentiation of housing prices between the two types of buyers from four aspects: Functional requirements, subjective factors, differences of policy, and economic motivations. In the context of "housing for living not for speculation", paying attention to the spatial structure of housing price of different groups of people and the changing trends of influencing factors will help to develop a deeper understanding of the housing regulation policy in megacities.