基于体制转换的乡村转型时空格局及演变机理——以甘肃省榆中县为例

乡村转型是乡村振兴的关键，也是“三农”转型的重要抓手。论文以黄土高原沟壑区甘肃省榆中县为例，从人口转型、土地转型和产业转型3个维度构建乡村转型指标体系，基于2002—2018年统计数据、农户调研数据、遥感数据等多源数据，运用熵值法、层次分析法、乡村转型度模型和空间分析方法，从县域和农户视角，量化与分析榆中县乡村转型及其时空演变格局，刻画农户生计转型路径；在此基础上，引入体制转换理论阐释乡村转型过程机理，并运用逐步回归分析方法识别驱动乡村转型的关键因素。结果表明：① 2002—2018年榆中县乡村转型度、产业转型度和人口转型度明显上升，而土地转型度稳中有降，乡村转型度和产业转型差异明显且变化较大，在中部川区最为突出。② 乡村转型、人口转型、产业转型均呈现“中部川区较高速和高速转型、北部山区低速转型、南部山区由低速转型向较高速过渡转型的空间格局”，并伴有逐级式和跨级式的变化特点，土地转型空间分布较为分散；乡村转型、人口转型、产业转型和土地转型的热点区主要集聚在中部川区，冷点区主要集聚于北部山区。③ 农户生计表现出多路径转型特征，北部山区为综合型生计转型路径，中部川区和南部山区为兼农型生计转型路径。④ 中部川区实现乡村体制转换，南部山区乡村发展明显升级转型，但未形成新的乡村体制，而北部山区乡村转型不够显著。⑤ 固定资产投资是决定榆中县乡村转型的关键因素。研究结果可为乡村转型提供新的研究视角，也为黄土高原沟壑区乡村振兴与乡村高质量发展提供理论依据。

Spatiotemporal evolution and mechanism of rural transformation: A case study of Yuzhong County in Gansu Province

Rural transformation is the key to rural revitalization, and it is also an important basis for the transformation of agriculture, rural areas, and farmers. This study constructed a rural transformation indicator system based on population, land use, and industrial transformations, which is applied to a case study of Yuzhong County in Gansu Province in the hilly region of the Loess Plateau. Based on multi-source data such as statistical data from 2002 to 2018, rural household survey data, and remote sensing data, entropy method, analytic hierarchy process, rural transformation degree model, and spatial analysis method were used to quantify and analyze the rural transformation and its spatial-temporal evolution patterns, and to describe the pathways of rural household livelihood transformation from the perspectives of county and rural households. Then, we applied the regime shift theory to describe the mechanism of rural transformation, using the stepwise regression analysis method to identify the key factors driving rural transformation. The results show that: 1) The rural transformation degree, industrial transformation degree, and population transformation degree in Yuzhong County increased significantly from 2002 to 2018, while the land use transformation degree decreased steadily. The difference between rural transformation degree and industrial transformation degree was obvious and changed greatly, especially in the central plain area. 2) Rural transformation, population transformation, and industrial transformation basically showed a spatial pattern of relatively high and high-speed transformation in the central area, low-speed transformation in the north, and transition from low-speed to relatively high-speed transformation in the south, accompanied by step-by-step and cross-level changes, and the spatial distribution of land use transformation was relatively scattered. The hot spots of rural transformation, population transformation, industrial transformation, and land use transformation were concentrated in the central plain area of the county, while cold spots were mainly concentrated in the northern mountainous area. 3) The livelihood transformation pathways of rural households were diverse, which showed comprehensive transformation in the northern mountainous area, and part-time farming in the central plain and southern mountainous areas. 4) Rural transformation regime shift has taken place in the central plain area, while in the southern mountainous area rural development is progressing but a regime shift has not occurred, and rual transformation is not significant in the northern mountainous area. 5) Fixed asset investment is the key factor of rural transformation in Yuzhong County. Finally, the results aim to provide a theoretical basis for rural revitalization and rural high-quality development in the hilly region of the Loess Plateau from the new perspective of rural transformation study.