2000—2010年中国农村人力资源格局的重构

在城镇化快速发展和农村青壮年劳动力向城镇大规模转移的背景下,如何保证人口流出地的人口质量成为农村可持续发展和乡村振兴的关键。论文运用IPF等方法对2000年和2010年全国2294个县域空间单元的农村人口的教育年限进行了估算,并基于区域人力资源的定量测算,对2000—2010年之间全国农村人力资源的空间格局的相对变化态势进行了分析。研究发现：① 2000—2010年中国农村人力资源总量减少了3.0%,人力资源总量的空间格局变化不大,地域差异主要体现为东西差异和省际差异,空间集聚态势显著但均衡性增加;② 人均人力资源发生了很大变化,10 a间提升了17.4%,县域单元农村人力资源的相对减少主要发生在中部地区和东北地区,而西部地区、长三角、珠三角,以及地级市市辖区的农村人力资源则有所增加,人均人力资源下降的地区超过50%;③ 根据人力资源总量和人均人力资源的变化,县域单元存在同步增加、同步减少、质增量减、质减量增4种类型,2000—2010年间,平原县和丘陵县、粮食主产区、贫困县的人力资源变化需格外重视。平原和丘陵地区同步减少型县域单元的比例均超过40%;粮食主产区农村人力资源总量优势明显,但人均人力资源下降的比例高达64.6%;贫困县同步增加型地区的比例达到43.9%,但人力资源水平仍然与非贫困县有一定差距。这些研究结果表明,遏制平原县、丘陵县和粮食主产区人力资源质量下降,提升贫困县人力资源总体水平是当前农村人口可持续发展的当务之急。

Change of rural human resources from 2000 to 2010 in China

Population structure has changed remarkably in rural China along with rapid urbanization and rural-urban migration. Maintaining population quality in source areas of migration is crucial for rural revitalization and sustainable development. By means of the iterative proportional fitting (IPF) algorithm, this study estimated the number of rural population and their years of education in 2000 and 2010 for 2294 counties of China. The spatial pattern and trend of change of rural human resources of the county units in 2000 and 2010 were analyzed based on the quantitative model of human resources. It is found that: 1) Gross human resources decreased by 3.0% in rural areas in China from 2000-2010. Differences between eastern and western regions and variations at the provincial level were the most obvious spatial differences. Spatial agglomeration was significant and more evenly distributed. 2) Human resources per capita had increased by 17.4% in this decade. The outflow of rural human resources had mostly taken place in central China and Northeast provinces. Rural human resources increased in the western region, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and prefecture-level cities; the proportion of areas with decreased per capita human resources exceeded 50%. 3) Based on the change of rural gross and per capita human resources, there are four types of county units, that is, the simultaneously increasing type, the simultaneously decreasing type, the increasing quality and decreasing quantity type, and the decreasing quality and increasing quantity type. Change of human resources in counties of hilly areas, plain areas, major grain production areas, and national-level poverty-stricken counties should be paid particular attention to. The proportion of simultaneously decreasing type in hilly counties and plain counties exceeded 40%. The advantage of gross rural human resources in major grain production areas was obvious but the proportion of counties with decreased per capita human resources reached 64.6%. The proportion of simultaneously increasing type in national-level poverty-stricken counties was 43.9%, but there remained a gap with other counties. Based on the results, the priority for sustainable development of rural areas is to prevent the decrease of human resources of hilly counties, plain counties, and major grain production areas, and to improve the gross human resource level in poverty-stricken counties.