世界能源贸易网络的演化特征与能源竞合关系

详尽地探讨全球能源贸易网络的演化特征及国际贸易的竞合关系,可为中国能源贸易政策的制定提供科学支撑。论文运用复杂网络方法,从整体格局出发研究了世界能源贸易网络的演化特征,并重点从供给与需求两方面分析了贸易集团演化与供需大国的能源竞合关系。研究结果表明：20世纪90年代以来,世界能源贸易关系不断趋于复杂化。近年来,能源贸易主体数量基本保持稳定,当前占世界总数近80%的国家/地区均参与能源贸易;世界能源贸易网络同时具有小世界特性与无标度特性;世界能源的进出口格局已发生重塑,能源的出口重心逐渐由东亚、中东、澳洲和欧洲转向了东欧、中东、北美、澳洲和西非等地区,进口重心由东亚、西欧和澳洲向北美、东亚和西欧转移;世界能源贸易网络存在四大集团,分别是以美国为首的贸易集团、欧洲-俄罗斯等国家贸易集团、东亚-东南亚贸易集团和澳大利亚-印度-非洲贸易集团等。地理距离、制度差异、历史文化及政治关系等是贸易集团演化的重要原因;贸易集团内,核心国家间的贸易依赖存在着非对称性,能源需求国进口来源的多元化现象更为突出,东亚、东南亚市场是供给国共同争夺的对象。

Characteristics of evolution of global energy trading network and relationships between major countries

Detailed discussion on global energy trading structure and topological characteristics is the necessary knowledge for formulating energy trade-related strategies. From the perspective of complex network, this study examined the topological structure and evolutionary characteristics of the global energy trading network, and analyzed the competition and cooperation relationships between the trade groups and supply and demand countries. The results show that: 1) Since the 1990s, global energy trading relations have become increasingly complicated. In recent years, the number of energy trading entities has remained stable, and nearly 80% of the countries/regions in the world are involved in energy trade. 2) The global energy trading network has both "small world" effect and scale-free characteristics. 3) The energy export center has gradually shifted from East Asia, the Middle East, Australia, Europe to Russia, the Middle East, North America, Australia, and West Africa regions. At the same time, the import center has shifted from East Asia, Western Europe, and Australia to North America, East Asia, and Western Europe regions. 4) There are four trade blocs in the global energy trading network, namely, the trade blocs led by the United States, European-Russia countries, East Asia-Southeast Asia countries, and Australia-India-Africa countries. Geographical distances, institutional differences, historical, cultural, and political relations are important reasons for the change of trade blocs. 5) Within the trade blocs, the dependence between core countries is asymmetric. The diversification of import sources of energy demand countries is more prominent, and the East and Southeast Asian markets are jointly contested by the major supply countries. This study can help to further understand the changing energy trade linkages and provide some reference for policy formulation to achieve energy trade security.