地理系统模型研究进展

地理系统是多圈层交互的复杂巨系统。地理系统模型是理解和预测不同尺度地理系统格局和过程变化最重要的研究方法。地理系统模型作为可持续发展科学决策必需的工具,是自然地理学重要的研究方向。过去几十年来,在全球变化等全球性重大环境问题和人类科学决策需求的推动下,地理系统模型虽然发展迅速,但还不足以准确地模拟和预测复杂人地耦合系统。本文分别从模型原理、框架和尺度等方面回顾与梳理了地理系统模型从单要素到多要素、从统计到过程、从静态到动态、从单点到区域和全球尺度模拟等发展历程,并总结了地理系统模型对发展人类—自然耦合系统以及模型—数据融合系统的趋势。发展中国的地理系统模型将有助于中国和全球可持续发展的科学决策。

A review of geographical system models

The geographical system is a complex system including multiple spheres and their interactions. A geographical system model is a coupled human and environmental system model for understanding and predicting changes in patterns and processes of the system. Geographical system models are important tools for supporting sustainable development policy making, and thus is a key scientific research area. During the past decades, geographical system models have been developed to examine global environmental problems such as global change and sustainable development. However, the existing geographical system models have limited ability to simulate and project changes in the complex coupled human-environmental system. This study reviewed the history of development of geographical system models, which is characterized by transitions from single process to multiple process, statistics-based to process-based, static to dynamic, and site level to regional and global scale simulations. We also summarized two important development trends of geographical system models: toward coupled human and natural processes and their interactions, and model-data synthesis. To support policy making for sustainable development in China and globally, developing geographical system models is urgent for the Chinese physical geography research community.