北京航空旅客出行特征及新机场旅客分担

本文基于北京市大样本航空旅客问卷调查,采用结构相似系数和序数逻辑回归模型对398份普通旅客问卷和3942份航空旅客问卷定量分析发现：北京地区的旅客出行具有＂近谷远峰＂的空间性,其对交通方式的选择具有＂航进陆退＂的发展趋势和＂近汽远飞＂的空间特征;基于票价、时间、舒适和自由等4大因素,旅客按照供需结构相似决策机制,选择出行交通方式;年龄和性别对航空旅客出行的影响不显著,教育程度和月收入水平对航空旅客的＂时间价值＂、＂乘机比例＂和＂乘机频率＂均有正向影响,其中月收入水平影响最大;公商务旅客主要选择飞机和动车出行,度假旅游者主要选择动车和飞机出行,探亲访友者主要选择长途汽车和自驾车出行,学生主要选择火车和长途汽车出行。基于时间价值和效用函数,采用logit模型计算出北京新机场对北京市航空旅客的分担率为41.2%。

Research on the Characteristics of Beijing Passengers and the Distribution Rate of New Airport

Based on a large number of surveys of air passengers in Beijing Capital International Airport,this paper quantitatively analyzes 4340 valid questionnaires by the models of structural similarity coefficient,multiple logistic regression,logit model,and concludes travelling-preference mechanism and the characteristics of air passengers.The passengers in Beijing prefer long distance trips to short distance trips whose selections of the way of travelling have the spatial feature of"short distance trips by vehicles and long distance trips by air flights" and development tendency of"increasing preference of air flights while decreasing preference of ground transportation".With respect to four factors affecting passengers’travelling: costs,time,comfort level and flexibility,according to passengers’decision-making mechanism and the supplies structure,passengers select the ways of travelling on the basis of the similarity coefficient between passenger demand structure and traffic supply structure.In accordance with logistic regression model of passengers’travelling intention,education level and income positively affect"time value of passengers","proportion by plane"and"frequency by plane"of travelers.According to microcosmic demand and supply analysis model of passenger travelling,air flight is the primary priority of business travelers in Beijing,followed by bullet train;holiday travelers prefer air flight and then bullet train,travelers who are visiting relatives and friends tend to choose long distance coach or drive by themselves;most of students travel by train and long distance coach.Based on time value and utility function,this paper concludes the distribution rate of passengers in the new airport is about 41.2%.