京津冀城市群协同发展的理论基础与规律性分析

推动京津冀城市群协同发展既是一项国家重大战略,又是一个复杂的长期博弈过程,需要遵循科学理论,尊重科学规律,推动京津冀城市群实现共同繁荣昌盛、共享蓝天白云、共担发展风险、共建世界都会的战略目标。本文从理论上提出了京津冀城市群协同发展的科学理论基础与科学规律。认为推进京津冀城市群协同发展应以协同论、博弈论、耗散结构理论和突变论作为科学理论基础,其中协同论为核心理论。京津冀城市群的协同发展过程是一个博弈、协同、突变、再博弈、再协同、再突变的非线性螺旋式上升过程,每一次博弈—协同—突变过程,都将城市群的协同发展推向更高级协同阶段,并呈现出阶段性规律。具体包括协助阶段、协作阶段、协调阶段、协合阶段、协同阶段、协振阶段、一体化阶段和同城化阶段共8大阶段。进一步分析认为,京津冀城市群协同发展的真正内涵是推动城市群实现规划协同、交通协同、产业协同、城乡协同、市场协同、科技协同、金融协同、信息协同、生态协同和环境协同,建设协同发展共同体。本文成果旨在为京津冀协同发展提供科学基础和理论依据。

Theoretical foundation and patterns of coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration

Promoting coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration is not only a major national strategy, but also a long-term complex process. It is necessary to apply scientific theories and respect the laws of nature to realize the strategic target of common prosperity, share a clean environment, share the burden of risk of development, and build a world-class metropolis for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration. This article examines the scientific foundation and patterns of coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration. Synergy theory, game theory, dissipative structure theory, and catastrophe theory are the theoretical basis of coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration. Synergy theory is the core theory for the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration. The coordinated development process of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration is a non-linear spiral progress of game, coordination, mutation, game, resynchronization, and mutation. Each game-coordination-mutation process promotes the coordinated development of the urban agglomeration to a higher level of coordination, and the progress fluctuates. This process includes eight stages: assistance phase, cooperation phase, harmonization phase, synergy phase, coordination phase, resonance phase, integration phase, and cohesion phase. Further analysis shows that the real connotation of coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration is to realize the coordination of planning, transportation, industrial development, urban and rural development, market, science and technology, finance, information, ecology, and the environment, as well as the construction of a collaborative development community. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration will achieve advanced collaboration from low-level collaborative phase through regional coordination on planning, construction of traffic network, industrial development, joint development of urban and rural areas, market consolidation, science and technology cooperation, equal development of financial services, information sharing, ecological restoration, and pollution control. This study may provide a scientific foundation and theoretical basis for the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration.