古丝绸之路沿线地区千年冷暖变化的若干特征

依据近期发表的古丝绸之路沿线若干地区(点)的温度重建序列,结合干湿变化等代用记录,分析了过去千年古丝绸之路沿线温度变化的基本特征,以及这些地区(点)在“中世纪气候异常期”(MCA,约950-1250年)和“小冰期”(LIA,约1450-1850年)的干湿特征异同。主要结论为：①过去2000年古丝绸之路的温度变化经历了1-3世纪温暖、4-7世纪前期寒冷、7世纪后期-11世纪初温暖、11世纪中期-12世纪初偏冷、12世纪中期-13世纪中期温暖、13世纪末-19世纪中期寒冷和20世纪快速增暖的百年际波动过程;但不同区域间的年代至百年尺度变化位相不完全同步,波动幅度也存在差异。②各地干湿特征在MCA和LIA也存在一定差异：中国的关中平原及河西走廊在MCA间的干湿变率较LIA大;中亚干旱区MCA期间气候偏干,LIA期间偏湿;欧洲中北部以及斯堪的纳维亚半岛南部等地在MCA间气候较LIA偏干,且中部地区LIA间的干湿变率较MCA大;芬兰和斯堪的纳维亚半岛北部以及俄罗斯等地MCA间的气候较LIA更湿润。

Characteristics of temperature changes during the past millennium along the Ancient Silk Road

Based on the recently published multi-proxies temperature reconstruction series (longer than 1000 years) along the Ancient Silk Road, combined with the dry and wet condition variation reconstructions, the general characteristics of temperature changes were analyzed and the regional differences of dry and wet condition variations were compared for the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, AD950-AD1250) and Little Ice Age (LIA, AD1450-AD1850). The main conclusions are: the centennial temperature variations during the past 2000 years experienced warm epochs in the 1st-3rd century, the latter part of the 7th century to the early of the 11th century, the mid-12th century to mid-13th century, and since the 20th century; and cold epochs during the 4th century to the early 7th century, the middle of the 11th century to the early 12th century, and the end of the 13th century to the mid-19th century. The phases of warm and cold condition and fluctuations at decadal-centennial temporal scales differed among the various regions. The wet and dry condition variations during the MCA and LIA also exhibited regional differences, which was larger during the MCA than the LIA on the Guanzhong Plain and in the Hexi Corridor of China, and the climate was dry during the MCA and wet during the LIA in the arid region of Central Asia. The climate was drier during the MCA than the LIA in the south of Scandinavia and the middle and northern parts of Europe, and in the central part of this region the variation was large during the LIA. In contrast, Finland, northern Scandinavia, and Russia had wetter climate during the MCA.