洪灾风险评价与区划研究进展

洪灾风险评价是洪灾风险管理的首要步骤。洪灾风险区划是在洪灾风险评价基础上的宏 观分区， 有助于更清晰的把握洪灾风险的空间格局与内在规律。文章首先对洪灾风险相关概念进 行了阐述， 试图达到理清和规范的目的。然后对洪灾风险评价常用方法和洪灾风险区划研究进行 了评述。目前主要的洪灾风险评价方法有地貌学方法、水文水力学模型与系统仿真模拟方法、基 于历史灾情数据的方法、基于水灾史料和古洪水调查的方法、遥感与GIS 方法、基于洪灾形成机 制的系统分析方法等。最后对洪灾风险评价与洪灾风险区划研究进行了小结， 并指出了未来在洪 灾风险评价与区划的数据基础、洪灾风险评价的时空尺度、洪灾风险区划的理论与方法、洪灾风 险评价与区划的技术手段等方面的可能发展前景。

Progr ess on Assessment and Regionalization of Flood Risk

Flood risk assessment is the first step in the flood risk management. Flood risk regionalization, which can help understand the distribution patterns and internal rules of flood risk clearly, is developed based on the flood risk assessment. Firstly, the authors explain concepts of flood risk concerned in order to clarify and standardize them. Secondly, this paper reviews the methods of flood risk assessment and flood risk regionalization. The primary methods of flood risk assessment are geomorphological method, hydrological and hydrodynamic modeling method, system emulation modeling method, historical flood disaster data based method, palaeoflood and historical data method, remote sensing and geographical information system method, system analysis method based on the mechanism of flood, and etc. After a brief summary of the researches on flood risk assessment and flood risk regionalization, some perspectives on flood risk assessment and flood risk regionalization are put forward, such as the data base of flood risk research, temporal- spatial scale of assessment, theories and methods of regionalization, technical measures.