地缘战略交汇区地缘环境演变评估模型构建及其应用——以乌克兰为例

地缘环境研究是当前国内政治地理研究的重点和热点,在概念、内涵、分析框架、空间分异、系统模拟等领域已取得较大进展,但对于地缘战略交汇区这一特殊地缘政治区域的地缘环境研究鲜有涉及。论文基于地缘战略的空间和权力属性,融合政治地理学的地缘环境、地缘位势,国际关系学的现实主义、自由主义和建构主义等理论,兼顾主体间性的哲学思想,构建了地缘战略交汇区地缘环境的评价模型,并以乌克兰为例进行了实证研究以验证模型的可靠性。结果表明：① 整体上,乌克兰的地缘环境演变态势趋好,但波动剧烈,未来其地缘环境还会出现间歇式动荡;② 受历史文化渊源、军事物质权力、战略投入意愿、经济相互依赖、地理空间距离等因素的影响,俄罗斯在乌克兰一直保持较大的地缘位势优势;③ 德国在乌克兰的地缘位势年际起伏较大,近年来主要受地缘经济因素的影响呈升高的趋势。法国和美国在乌克兰的地缘位势一直低于俄罗斯和德国,未来法国地缘位势会小幅升高,美国将会降低。论文提出的地缘战略交汇区地缘环境评价模型,经历史验证,评估结果与乌克兰国内政局演变态势拟合度较高,模型可靠性好,可为其他地缘战略交汇区的地缘环境评价提供参考。

Construction and application of a geopolitical setting evolution model in an area of geopolitical-strategic intersection:Taking Ukraine as an example

Geopolitical setting research is the focus and hot spot of political geography in China. Significant progress has been made in the areas of conceptual framing, connotation, analytical framework, spatial differentiation, system simulation, and so on. However, the study of geopolitical setting in geopolitical-strategic intersection areas has not been fully developed. This study constructed an evaluation model of geopolitical setting in geopolitical-strategic intersection area based on the space and power of geopolitical strategy, by combining the theories of geopolitical setting and geopolitical potential in political geography, and realism, liberalism, and constructivism in international relations, and by giving consideration to the philosophy of inter-subjectivity. This study also took Ukraine as an empirical study to verify the reliability of the model. The results show that: 1) On the whole, Ukraine's geopolitical setting tends to be improving, but it fluctuates violently, and will be intermittently turbulent in the future. 2) Under the influence of historical and cultural origin, military material power, strategic investment willingness, economic interdependence, geographic and spatial distance, and other factors, Russia has maintained a large geopolitical potential advantage in Ukraine. 3) Germany's geopolitical potential in Ukraine fluctuates greatly from year to year, and is on the rise in recent years due to the influence of geoeconomic factors. The geopolitical potential of France and the United States in Ukraine has been lower than Russia and Germany. In the future, the geopolitical potential of France will increase slightly, while that of the United States will decrease. The geopolitical setting evaluation model of geopolitical-strategic intersection area proposed in this study has been verified by historical data, and the assessment results have a high fitting degree with the evolution of domestic political situation in Ukraine. The model has reasonable reliability, and can provide reference for the geopolitical setting evaluation in other geopolitical-strategic intersection areas.