| 基于模糊综合评价法的昆明市生态安全时序性评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 王兴友,赵筱青.基于模糊综合评价法的昆明市生态安全时序性评价[J].云南地理环境研究,2013(5):39-45. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王兴友 赵筱青 |
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| 作者单位： | 云南大学资源环境与地球科学学院,云南昆明650091 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然基金项目（云南大规模桉树引种区土地生态安全时空分异及其优化配置研究：NO.41361020;尾叶桉类林引种的环境影响与生态安全格局研究：NO.40961031）资助. |
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| 摘 要： | 以昆明市为研究区,采用PSR模型构建生态安全指标体系,通过熵值法确定指标权重,运用模糊综合评价法对昆明市2000～2010年生态安全状态进行动态评价与分析,并运用灰色数列预测法对昆明市生态安全进行预测.结果表明：2000年昆明市生态安全处于不安全等级,2001年至2007年处于临界安全等级.由于昆明市经济的不断发展,逐渐加大对环境保护等方面的投资等原因,2008年后生态安全逐渐好转,处于较安全等级,并具有向更安全等级发展的趋势.
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| 关 键 词： | 生态安全 时序性评价 模糊综合评价法 昆明市 |
ECOLOGICAL SECURITY SEQUENTIAL ASSESSMENT OF KUNMING BASED ON FUZZY COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION METHOD |
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| WANG Xing-you,ZHAO Xiao-qing.ECOLOGICAL SECURITY SEQUENTIAL ASSESSMENT OF KUNMING BASED ON FUZZY COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION METHOD[J].Yunnan Geographic Environment Research,2013(5):39-45. |
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| Authors: | WANG Xing-you ZHAO Xiao-qing |
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| Institution: | ( School of Resource ＆ Environment and Earth Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, Yunnan, China) |
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| Abstract: | Taking Kunming as a case study, adopting PSR （Pressure - State - Response） conceptual model to construct ecological security index system and using entropy method to determine the index weight, giving a dynamic assessment and analysis on the ecological security from 2000 to 2010 by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and conducting a prediction on the ecological security in Kunming by gray sequence prediction method. The results indicate that the ecological security in Kunming was insecure in 2000 and moderately secure from 2001 to 2007. With the rapid development of economy and gradually reinforced investment on environment protection, the ecological security in Kunming got a good momentum and maintained secure after 2008. It also had a tendency toward higher levels. |
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| Keywords: | ecological security sequential assessment fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method Kunming |
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