基于双视角竞争态与亲景度中国入境旅游客源市场分析

利用市场竞争态与亲景度构建综合评价模型,分析1998~2000年和2009~2011年两个时段中国入境旅游客源市场及其变化。结果发现：（1）1998~2000年美国等为明星市场,日本为金牛市场,印度等为幼童市场,英国等为瘦狗市场。（2）2009~2011年新加坡等为明星市场,韩国等为金牛市场,印度等为幼童市场,瑞典等为瘦狗市场。（3）受空间距离的影响,强亲景市场比较稳定,弱亲景、弱疏景、强疏景3种市场则有可能发生较大变化。（4）经过10年的发展明星市场和幼童市场数量保持不变,金牛市场增加到3个,瘦狗市场减少到3个,客源市场逐步壮大,入境旅游市场发展良好。

AN ANALYSIS OF INBOUND TOURISM MARKET BY THE METHODS OF DOUBLE COMPETITION STATES AND PREFERENCE SCALE IN CHINA

The study is carried out from perspectives of tourist market and destination market; it uses market competition state and preference scale to build the synthetic evaluation model,and analyzes the inbound tourism market and its change in China from 1998 to 2000,as well as 2009 to 2011. The results showas follows：（ 1）From 1998 to 2000,the United State,Russia and South Korea became the star market,Japan became the cash cowmarket, India, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, the Republic of Kazakhstan, France, Germany,Canada,Australia,and NewZealand became the young children market,the United Kingdom,Italy,the Netherland,Sweden and Denmark became the thin dog market.（ 2） From 2009 to 2011,Singapore,Russia,the United States became the star market,South Korea,Japan,and Australia became the cash cowmarket,India,Thailand,the Philippines,the Republic of Kazakhstan,the United Kingdom,France,Italy,Germany,Canada and NewZealand became the young children market,and Sweden,Denmark,and the Netherland become the thin dog market.（ 3） Due to the space and distance,the strong preference scale market is much stable,while markets of weak preference scale,weak sparse scale,and strong sparse scale are likely to change a lot.（ 4） After 10 year＇s development,the number of star market and young children market remain the same situation,the cash cowmarket increases to 3 markets,the thin dog market decreases to 3 markets,tourist market expands gradually,and inbound tourism market is well- developed.