VIL产品在丽江强对流天气中的应用

通过对2006 - 2010年丽江市气象台站观测的冰雹观测记录、短时强降水及民政部门提供的冰雹灾情资料,并结合丽江CINRAD/CC雷达观测资料中的垂直液态含水量VIL进行统计分析.结果表明：当VIL在18 kg/m^2上下时预示着发生冰雹的可能性极大,如果后续VIL值有跃增性增长,并短时（1-5个体扫）达到30 kg/m^2以上,此时可以肯定将发生冰雹天;非汛期期间,VIL值远远小于汛期期间;短时强降水中,当VIL≧1 kg/m2持续维持4个体扫以上时,则有可能出现持续性降水或强降水,历史概括率为40/49=81.6％;当VIL≧5kg/m2时有可能出现短时性强降水,历史概括率为25/49=51.0％.但由于距离等的原因,出现强降水时VIL值仍可能为零,即VIL值对强降水没有明显指示作用的仍占了18％ （5/18）的比例,因而是业务应用中值得关注的一个问题.

APPLICATION OF VIL PRODUCT IN STRONG CONVECTIVE WEATHER IN LIJIANG

This article statistical analysis the CINRAD/CC radar observation data of VIL according to the observation records of hall short - time, heavy rain and hail disaster provided by the civil affairs department data in Li - jiang between 2006 and 2010. Results are as follows： The VIL value of 18 kg/m^2 indicates the possibility of hail occurred; The sudden increase of VIL value （ 1 - 5 body scanning attaining 30 kg/m^2 ） indicates the hail will descend; During the non - flood season, VIL value is under the value of flood season; Short - time strong rainfall or persistent precipitation will appear when the VIL （ 〉 1 kg/m^2 ） maintains more than 4 body scannings, the historical generalization rate is 81.6% ; When the VIL is above 5 kg/m^2, short - time strong rainfall may occur, the historical generalization rate is 51.0%. But because of distance, when the VIL value is 0, there is still possibility of strong rainfall. Namely the possibility of no clear indication of VIL value is 18%. So it is the matter worthy of attention in the application of business.