龙川江流域土地利用格局变化与趋势预测研究

以龙川江流域为研究对象,在遥感和GIS技术的支持下,应用1988年与1999年两期TM遥感影像解译制图,编制两期土地利用现状图。在ARC/INFO下,建立空间信息库,进行叠加分析,获取该流域土地利用类型动态转移数据矩阵,揭示该流域11年来土地利用空间分布规律及其变化特征。同时,应用Markov链模型对未来土地利用格局趋势进行预测分析,得出有林地、水域、水田、居民地在逐年增加,旱地、荒草地、灌木林逐年减少的结论,从而为调控该流域土地利用结构和方式,改善其生态环境状况提供依据。

RESEARCH OF LAND USE PATTERN AND FORECAST IN LONGCHUANJIANG WATERSHED

Regarded Longchuanjiang Watershed as the research object, supported by remote sensing and GIS technology, interpretted 1988＇s and 1999＇s TM images, two kinds of land use types map were compiled. The dynamic transfer data matrix of land use types in this watershed was also obtained through constructed space information base and overlayed the two kinds of vector maps used ARC/INFO software. The spatial distribution and changes of land use in this watershed were analyzed in the given time. At the same time, analysised and forecasted on the developing tendency of land use patterns with Markov chain model. The result showed, the woodland, water area, paddy field and resident area were increased year after year, while dry land, barren grassplot and shrubbery were decreased year after year. The gist that regulation of land use pattern and improvemont of entironment were obtained.