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| 区域泥石流灾害的定量风险分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 丁继新,杨志法,尚彦军,牛玉强,刘永.区域泥石流灾害的定量风险分析[J].岩土力学,2006,27(7):1071-1076. |
| 作者姓名： | 丁继新 杨志法 尚彦军 牛玉强 刘永 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 有色金属矿产地质调查中心,北京,100012;北京市中色资源环境工程有限公司,北京,100045 2. 中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所,工程地质力学重点实验室,北京,100029 3. 北京市鑫畅路桥建设有限公司,北京,101101 |
| 摘 要： | 概述了区域泥石流灾害的风险分析体系,指出了过去区域泥石流灾害危险性研究中的某些误区以及区域社会经济易损性评价的难点.借助于＂灾害熵＂的概念,提出了区域泥石流灾害危险性定量分析的一种新方法.通过将泥石流灾害的危险性和区域社会经济易损性进行分级,建立了风险评价矩阵.在此基础上,对区域泥石流灾害的风险进行了分级,可为有效地进行区域泥石流灾害的预警,以及为减灾防灾奠定了坚实的基础. |
| 关 键 词： | 区域泥石流灾害 定量风险分析 灾害熵 风险评价矩阵 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-7598-（2006）07-1071-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-10-13 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-03-05 |
Quantitative risk analysis of regional debris flow hazards |
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| DING Ji-xin,YANG Zhi-fa,SHANG Yan-jun,NIU Yu-qiang,LIU Yong.Quantitative risk analysis of regional debris flow hazards[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2006,27(7):1071-1076. | |
| Authors: | DING Ji-xin YANG Zhi-fa SHANG Yan-jun NIU Yu-qiang LIU Yong |
| Institution: | 1.China Non-Ferrrous Metals Resource Geological Survey, Center, Beijing 100012, China; 2. Resource and Environment Engineering limited company, Beijing 100045, China;3.Key Laboratory of Engineering Geomechanics, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; 4.Beijing Xinchang Road and Bridge Construction Co. Ltd., Beijing 101101, China |
| Abstract: | The risk analysis system of regional debris flow hazards is briefly discussed; and some mistakes on the study of hazards analysis of regional debris flow and difficulties on the assessment of social economic vulnerability are indicated. By means of the conception of “hazard entropy”, a new approach for quantitative risk analysis of regional debris flow hazards is brought forward. A risk assessment matrix is built up through grading the hazards of regional debris flow and the social economic vulnerability. On the basis of risk assessment matrix, the risk of regional debris flow is graded; and it will lay a solid foundation for effectively early-warning of regional debris flow and reducing and preventing hazards. |
| Keywords: | regional debris flow hazards quantitative risk analysis hazards entropy risk assessment matrix |
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