青藏公路多年冻土区预警系统研究

在全球气候转暖和人类活动影响下，使多年冻土地区公路工程地质产生了新的变化。为了研究这些变化对公路路基稳定性的影响，展开长期的预警观测研究，本文引入模糊数学理论，从影响多年冻土区公路路基病害的因素中选择冻土年平均地温、冻土类型（冻土含冰量）、人为上限的变化、路基排水状况、特殊措施调控效果等关键因子，建立其语言变量及模糊隶属度函数，并综合历年来病害调查研究成果，总结病害的形成机理和专家经验，形成37条由语言变量描述的路基病害影响因子与病害严重程度之间关系的逻辑规则。运用Matlab模糊逻辑工具箱建立青藏公路多年冻土区预警系统。

Study of early warning on roadbed diseases of Qinghai-Tibet highway in permafrost regions

With the development of the global warming and human activities, the geology along the Qinghai-Tibet highway in permafrost regions appeared new changes. In order to inspect the influences of the changes on the stability of roadbed and take a long-term monitoring system study of early warning on roadbed diseases, the fuzzy math theory was introduced. In the warning system, some key factors including the annual average ground temperature, frozen soil type (ice content), the change of permafrost table, and drainage condition of the roadbed and the method of special adjustment were selected. Then linguistic variables and fuzzy membership function for describing the diseases and their intensity were installed. At last, 37 items of the logic rules for describing influencing factors of the diseases and their relationship with the disease intensity were put forward, combining the disease investigations and experience from experts. Matlab Fuzzy Logic Toolbox was adopted for building the early warning system on roadbed diseases of Qinghai-Tibet highway in permafrost regions.