海塘渗压监测分析的时间序列组合模型

海塘堤防渗压是反映海塘安全状态的重要指标，其监测资料的分析关系到堤防及堤内生命财产安全，为了提高渗压资料的建模拟合精度，更好地进行渗压预报，在对监测资料进行分析时，以谐量回归分析为基础，再对回归拟合残差序列进行时序分析，以此建立谐量回归-时序组合模型，并依此组合模型进行短期实时预报。以某海塘实测资料建立了高精度的组合模型，同时采用等维新息模型成功实现了工程实际应用中的渗压实时拟合预报。

The time series model of sea wall osmotic pressure monitoring analysis

The osmotic pressure is very important for sea wall safety. Analyzing the survey data correctly is a useful way to ensure the safety of sea wall and people who are protected by it. In order to improve the accuracy of sea wall osmotic pressure forecast, the harmonic quantity regression model has been used to fit the osmotic pressure periodicity, and the time series model has been used to analyze the error series. The combined model has been established base on these two kind models. Tests with practical data show that the combined model has very high accuracy to fit and forecast sea wall osmotic pressure. In addition, the equal-dimension new-information model idea has been put into the combined model to achieve the real-time forecast of sea wall osmotic pressure.