地面沉降风险评价初探

平原区超采地下水引发的地面沉降地质灾害已成为影响这些地区经济可持续发展的重要因素,风险管理是实现灾害防治从被动应对向主动防御转变的标志.根据地面沉降地质灾害自身特点,从其易发性、易损性和抗风险能力三方面进行分析评价,初步构建了地面沉降风险评价指标体系,介绍了常用的数学模型方法和空间分析技术,最后以苏锡常地区为例进行了实例研究.结果表明,决定当前地面沉降区风险分布的首要因素是地区经济发展水平,就相同级别的地面沉降而言,其对经济发达地区所造成的侵害要高于经济欠发达地区;其次才是地面沉降灾害发生程度.由此建议加大抗灾投入,增强区域风险抵御能力.

Preliminary Research on Risk of Land Subsidence

Land subsidence, which is induced by over-pumping groundwater continuously, has impeded the sustainable economic development in plain areas. As a new subject in disaster research, risk management demands positive prevention instead of passive management. In this paper, the risk management theory was applied to land subsidence research, and the main objectives and methods were discussed in detail. According to the characters of land subsidence, the author pointed out that the risk assessment should include three aspects: the vulnerability assessment, the destructiveness assessment and the resistibility assessment. Furthermore, a primary indicator system of risk assessment was established, some general mathematical models and spatial analysis techniques were also introduced. Finally, a case study was carried out in Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou area. The result shows that the infringement caused by the same level of land subsidence is more serious in developed areas than in underdeveloped ones. Therefore, to strengthen the risk resistibility, enhancing the disaster prevention inputs is suggested.