重庆巫山县望霞危岩体破坏及变形失稳预测

望霞危岩历史上多次发生山体崩滑变形破坏,最近两次大的危岩变形破坏都发生在雨季过后的10月份。鉴于此从危岩体区域地质背景、降雨、岩体结构等几个方面分别论述了产生崩塌灾害的原因,同时根据危岩体各段的变形特征及监测资料分析。认为,望霞危岩体的产生和发展,主要受控于特殊的地质构造环境和临空的高陡边坡条件,在持续性降雨的诱发下使危岩体多次失稳。结合2010年10月21号灾变后的监测数据,该危岩体总体变形趋势持续增大,还可能再次发生破坏,为此作者采用指数平滑法预测模型,以危岩的变形值和变形速率为判据,对危岩再次失稳时间进行动态跟踪预报,根据危岩的实际情况,对部分监测点位移进行了试验性及验证性的建模和预测,取得了较高的预测精度。对该危岩体的防治施工及确保长江航运安全具有重要的意义。

Failure characteristics and occurrence prediction of Wangxia dangerous rock mass in Wushan county,Chongqing

The failure have occurred many times at Wang Xia dangerous rock in the history,recently the two large deformation and damage of unstable rock have occurred in October after the rainy season,To explore the reason of the frequency of dangerous rock failure in the area,the authors assess different factors such as regional geological conditions,rain and structure of the dangerous rock,but also with deformation features of various sections of the dangerous rock and the monitoring data analysis.This paper indicates the origin and development of the dangerous rock is mainly dominated by the special geological environment and the free-face condition of the precipice slope,the continuous rainfall induced its re-occurring several times.Combined the monitoring data of October 21,2010 after the disaster,the trend of dangerous rock generally turned to larger deformation,the dangerous rock possible failure again,because of this the author used exponential smoothing forecasting model,According to the criterions of deformation and deformation velocity,the dynamic track prediction about the time of the danger rock re-occurring will be prediction,duo to the practical of the danger rock conditions,a model was established for the special displacement of the experimental validation of some observation points,and the prediction based on this model was achieved with high accuracy.Prevention of the dangerous rock for construction and the safety of the Yangtze River shipping has an important significance.