未来不同气候变化情景下我国玉米产量的初步预测

玉米是我国重要的粮食和饲料作物，研究气候变化对我国玉米产量的影响有重要意义。采用区域气候模式与CERES Maize模型相结合的方法，模拟了基准气候（BS，1961—1990年）和A2、B2两种温室气体排放方案下2011—2100年我国雨养和灌溉玉米产量，初步预测了未来不同气候情景下玉米产量的变化状况。结果表明，如果保持现有的玉米生产状况，气候变化将导致我国玉米主产区的玉米单产普遍降低，总产下降，给玉米生产带来一定经济损失。A2气候变化情景对我国玉米产量的负面影响要大于B2情景。CO2肥效作用可以在一定程度上缓解这种负面影响，其缓解作用对雨养玉米更明显。未来全国玉米主产区的雨养和灌溉玉米的稳产风险及低产出现的概率将会增大，总产的年际波动更剧烈。由于目前研究结果是未考虑农业生产的适应措施而得出的，可能会高估气候变化的负面影响。

The Projection of Maize Yield in China under Climate Change Scenarios

Climate change and its impacts have brought great concern. With its importance for national food and feed supply, it is necessary to examine the potential impacts of climate change on maize production in China. We assessed China′s maize production at 50 km 50 km grid scale using regional climate model and CERES Maize crop model. Rain fed and irrigated maize yields were simulated with present climate (BS) (1961 1990), and future (2011 2100) under two climate change scenarios (A2 and B2). Yields were estimated to decrease steadily, resulting in significant damages in production value of maize planting. The decrease in yield was larger with A2 than B2. CO2 fertilization effects offset the negative impacts, particularly for rain fed maize. Climate variability was projected to increase; leading to rising possibilities of low yields, and increased variability of annual production. Adaptation was not be included in this study. Therefore, the projected damages might be overestimated. Uncertainties existed in various scales, which need to be addressed in future study.